New York Rangers at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Chris KreiderGoals1
- Chris KreiderAssists1
- Chris KreiderPoints2
Islanders- Bo HorvatGoals1
- Noah DobsonAssists2
- Bo HorvatPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:54Anders Lee Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau (22), Pierre Engvall (16)2–4
- P215:01Adam Fox Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (33), Vincent Trocheck (51)2–3
- P27:47Chris Kreider Goal (39) Tip-In, assists: Artemi Panarin (70), Mika Zibanejad (43)1–3
- P113:38Kyle Palmieri Goal (27) Poke, assists: Brock Nelson (32), Noah Dobson (60)0–3
- P111:47Bo Horvat Goal (33) Tip-In, assists: Noah Dobson (59), Mathew Barzal (57)0–2
- P14:12Mike Reilly Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (35)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:12Mike Reilly Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (35)NYR 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 53% → 67% +15NYI 53% → 67%+15 pts
- P111:47Bo Horvat Goal (33) Tip-In, assists: Noah Dobson (59), Mathew Barzal (57)NYR 0 – 2 NYI · NYI 68% → 81% +13NYI 68% → 81%+13 pts
- P113:38Kyle Palmieri Goal (27) Poke, assists: Brock Nelson (32), Noah Dobson (60)NYR 0 – 3 NYI · NYI 82% → 91% +9NYI 82% → 91%+9 pts
- P27:47Chris Kreider Goal (39) Tip-In, assists: Artemi Panarin (70), Mika Zibanejad (43)NYR 1 – 3 NYI · NYR 6% → 15% +9NYR 6% → 15%+9 pts
- P215:01Adam Fox Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (33), Vincent Trocheck (51)NYR 2 – 3 NYI · NYR 12% → 27% +15NYR 12% → 27%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Islanders 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 45%
- Fair odds
- NYI -113
- NYR +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.0 – 3.2 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +9 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · NYI: Semyon Varlamov: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +34 Elo | NYR 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 53.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.022nd of 31 |
| 7th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.323rd of 31 |
| 7th of 31+0.6 | Margin | −0.425th of 31 |
| 16th of 3150.6% | Shot share | 47.6%23rd of 31 |
| 6th of 3191.2% | Save percentage | 90.8%10th of 31 |
| 1st of 318–2 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 31 |
| 4th of 3123–15 | Road vs home | 17–1924th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYR 2–0 NYI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.