New Jersey Devils at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Timo MeierGoals2
- Luke HughesAssists2
- Timo MeierPoints3
Maple Leafs- John TavaresGoals2
- Mitch MarnerAssists2
- John TavaresPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:46Jesper Bratt Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: none6–5
- P315:13John Tavares Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (48), Mitch Marner (56)5–5
- P311:03Jesper Bratt Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (38), Timo Meier (24)5–4
- P219:48Timo Meier Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (39)4–4
- P29:16David Kampf Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Dewar (6)3–4
- P27:59Auston Matthews Goal (68) Deflected, assists: Max Domi (38), Tyler Bertuzzi (22)3–3
- P112:37Timo Meier Goal (26) Slap Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (55), Luke Hughes (37)3–2
- P17:57Nolan Foote Goal (1) Backhand, assists: none2–2
- P16:08Auston Matthews Goal (67) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Domi (37), TJ Brodie (25)1–2
- P10:39Erik Haula Goal (16) Snap Shot, assists: none1–1
- P10:18John Tavares Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (55)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P27:59Auston Matthews Goal (68) Deflected, assists: Max Domi (38), Tyler Bertuzzi (22)NJ 3 – 3 TOR · TOR 35% → 55% +20TOR 35% → 55%+20 pts
- P219:48Timo Meier Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Nico Hischier (39)NJ 4 – 4 TOR · NJ 23% → 46% +23NJ 23% → 46%+23 pts
- P311:03Jesper Bratt Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (38), Timo Meier (24)NJ 5 – 4 TOR · NJ 47% → 81% +34NJ 47% → 81%+34 pts
- P315:13John Tavares Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (48), Mitch Marner (56)NJ 5 – 5 TOR · TOR 11% → 52% +41TOR 11% → 52%+41 pts
- P318:46Jesper Bratt Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNJ 6 – 5 TOR · NJ 49% → >99% +50NJ 49% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Maple Leafs 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 64%
- Fair odds
- TOR -132
- NJ +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.9 – 3.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1543 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +5 | NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) · TOR: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +100 Elo | TOR 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 56.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.73rd of 31 |
| 26th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 31 |
| 19th of 31−0.2 | Margin | +0.69th of 31 |
| 14th of 3150.7% | Shot share | 52.3%7th of 31 |
| 27th of 3189.6% | Save percentage | 90.1%22nd of 31 |
| 18th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 10th of 3120–18 | Road vs home | 21–1714th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NJ 1–1 TOR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.