Pittsburgh Penguins at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Rickard RakellGoals1
- Sidney CrosbyAssists1
- Rickard RakellPoints1
Maple Leafs- Auston MatthewsGoals1
- Auston MatthewsAssists1
- Auston MatthewsPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:30Jake McCabe Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (37), Mitch Marner (53)2–3
- P313:38Drew O'Connor Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre-Olivier Joseph (9), Sidney Crosby (46)2–2
- P31:22Auston Matthews Goal (65) Slap Shot, assists: John Tavares (36)1–2
- P25:36Matthew Knies Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: TJ Brodie (24), Morgan Rielly (47)1–1
- P118:06Rickard Rakell Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (38)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:06Rickard Rakell Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (38)PIT 1 – 0 TOR · PIT 45% → 62% +17PIT 45% → 62%+17 pts
- P25:36Matthew Knies Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: TJ Brodie (24), Morgan Rielly (47)PIT 1 – 1 TOR · TOR 36% → 55% +19TOR 36% → 55%+19 pts
- P31:22Auston Matthews Goal (65) Slap Shot, assists: John Tavares (36)PIT 1 – 2 TOR · TOR 53% → 77% +24TOR 53% → 77%+24 pts
- P313:38Drew O'Connor Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre-Olivier Joseph (9), Sidney Crosby (46)PIT 2 – 2 TOR · PIT 12% → 48% +36PIT 12% → 48%+36 pts
- OT1:30Jake McCabe Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (37), Mitch Marner (53)PIT 2 – 3 TOR · TOR 51% → 94% +42TOR 51% → 94%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Maple Leafs 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 60%
- Fair odds
- TOR -128
- PIT +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.9 – 3.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +4 | PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · TOR: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +73 Elo | TOR 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 56.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.63rd of 31 |
| 13th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 31 |
| 16th of 31+0.1 | Margin | +0.59th of 31 |
| 10th of 3151.6% | Shot share | 52.3%7th of 31 |
| 12th of 3190.6% | Save percentage | 90.1%22nd of 31 |
| 9th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 31 |
| 25th of 3115–23 | Road vs home | 20–1715th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 1–1 TOR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.