Toronto Maple Leafs at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Tyler BertuzziGoals2
- Jake McCabeAssists2
- Tyler BertuzziPoints3
Devils- Dawson MercerGoals1
- Dawson MercerAssists1
- Nico HischierPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:47Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake McCabe (20), Mitch Marner (54)5–2
- P37:33Auston Matthews Goal (66) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Domi (36)4–2
- P215:09Mark Giordano Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (38), Tyler Bertuzzi (21)3–2
- P215:00Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Domi (35), Jake McCabe (19)2–2
- P25:17Dawson Mercer Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Nico Hischier (38)1–2
- P114:25Nico Hischier Goal (27) Backhand, assists: Dawson Mercer (13), Brendan Smith (10)1–1
- P18:56Nicholas Robertson Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P114:25Nico Hischier Goal (27) Backhand, assists: Dawson Mercer (13), Brendan Smith (10)TOR 1 – 1 NJ · NJ 40% → 57% +17NJ 40% → 57%+17 pts
- P25:17Dawson Mercer Goal (20) Backhand, assists: Nico Hischier (38)TOR 1 – 2 NJ · NJ 56% → 74% +18NJ 56% → 74%+18 pts
- P215:00Tyler Bertuzzi Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Domi (35), Jake McCabe (19)TOR 2 – 2 NJ · TOR 24% → 45% +20TOR 24% → 45%+20 pts
- P215:09Mark Giordano Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (38), Tyler Bertuzzi (21)TOR 3 – 2 NJ · TOR 45% → 67% +22TOR 45% → 67%+22 pts
- P37:33Auston Matthews Goal (66) Wrist Shot, assists: Max Domi (36)TOR 4 – 2 NJ · TOR 76% → 93% +17TOR 76% → 93%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Devils 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 53%
- Fair odds
- NJ -138
- TOR +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.9 – 3.3 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −1 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +21 Elo | NJ 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 58.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.310th of 31 |
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.425th of 31 |
| 9th of 31+0.5 | Margin | −0.119th of 31 |
| 8th of 3152.1% | Shot share | 50.9%13th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3190.1% | Save percentage | 89.6%26th of 31 |
| 2nd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 31 |
| 7th of 3120–15 | Road vs home | 16–2125th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 0–1 NJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.