New York Islanders at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Kyle PalmieriGoals1
- Pierre EngvallAssists2
- Kyle PalmieriPoints2
Devils- Timo MeierGoals1
- Nico HischierAssists1
- Timo MeierPoints1
Scoring summary
- P36:17Kyle MacLean Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Anders Lee (17), Pierre Engvall (18)4–1
- P211:48Brock Nelson Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Hudson Fasching (10), Kyle Palmieri (24)3–1
- P23:25Timo Meier Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (56), Nico Hischier (40)2–1
- P116:52Kyle Palmieri Goal (29) Tip-In, assists: Mike Reilly (17), Brock Nelson (34)2–0
- P112:22Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Pierre Engvall (17), Anders Lee (16)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:22Jean-Gabriel Pageau Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Pierre Engvall (17), Anders Lee (16)NYI 1 – 0 NJ · NYI 46% → 62% +16NYI 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P116:52Kyle Palmieri Goal (29) Tip-In, assists: Mike Reilly (17), Brock Nelson (34)NYI 2 – 0 NJ · NYI 63% → 78% +15NYI 63% → 78%+15 pts
- P23:25Timo Meier Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (56), Nico Hischier (40)NYI 2 – 1 NJ · NJ 20% → 35% +15NJ 20% → 35%+15 pts
- P211:48Brock Nelson Goal (33) Wrist Shot, assists: Hudson Fasching (10), Kyle Palmieri (24)NYI 3 – 1 NJ · NYI 67% → 84% +16NYI 67% → 84%+16 pts
- P36:17Kyle MacLean Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Anders Lee (17), Pierre Engvall (18)NYI 4 – 1 NJ · NYI 93% → 99% +6NYI 93% → 99%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Devils 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 54%
- Fair odds
- NJ -121
- NYI +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 3.0 – 3.2 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | −3 | NYI: Semyon Varlamov: team allows 0.27 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · NJ: Jake Allen: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +26 Elo | NJ 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 31 |
| 22nd of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.426th of 31 |
| 24th of 31−0.3 | Margin | −0.219th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3147.8% | Shot share | 50.5%15th of 31 |
| 8th of 3190.9% | Save percentage | 89.6%27th of 31 |
| 3rd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 24th of 3116–23 | Road vs home | 16–2225th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYI 0–3 NJ in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.