Montreal Canadiens at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Cole CaufieldGoals1
- Cole CaufieldAssists1
- Cole CaufieldPoints2
Islanders- Kyle PalmieriGoals1
- Adam PelechAssists2
- Adam PelechPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT1:17Kyle Palmieri Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (33)2–3
- P36:30Casey Cizikas Goal (9) Wrap-around, assists: Adam Pelech (15), Ryan Pulock (13)2–2
- P33:42Cole Caufield Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Johnathan Kovacevic (6), Mike Matheson (50)2–1
- P25:17Pierre Engvall Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Pelech (14), Mike Reilly (16)1–1
- P117:58Jordan Harris Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (37), Nick Suzuki (43)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P117:58Jordan Harris Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (37), Nick Suzuki (43)MTL 1 – 0 NYI · MTL 45% → 62% +17MTL 45% → 62%+17 pts
- P25:17Pierre Engvall Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Pelech (14), Mike Reilly (16)MTL 1 – 1 NYI · NYI 36% → 55% +19NYI 36% → 55%+19 pts
- P33:42Cole Caufield Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Johnathan Kovacevic (6), Mike Matheson (50)MTL 2 – 1 NYI · MTL 47% → 73% +26MTL 47% → 73%+26 pts
- P36:30Casey Cizikas Goal (9) Wrap-around, assists: Adam Pelech (15), Ryan Pulock (13)MTL 2 – 2 NYI · NYI 24% → 53% +29NYI 24% → 53%+29 pts
- OT1:17Kyle Palmieri Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (33)MTL 2 – 3 NYI · NYI 52% → 93% +42NYI 52% → 93%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Islanders 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 61%
- Fair odds
- NYI -128
- MTL +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.9 – 3.2 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +10 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) · NYI: Semyon Varlamov: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +75 Elo | NYI 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 56.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.022nd of 31 |
| 28th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.323rd of 31 |
| 27th of 31−0.7 | Margin | −0.324th of 31 |
| 28th of 3145.8% | Shot share | 47.6%23rd of 31 |
| 21st of 3190.2% | Save percentage | 90.9%9th of 31 |
| 15th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 27th of 3114–23 | Road vs home | 18–1921st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MTL 2–0 NYI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.