New York Islanders at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Brock NelsonGoals2
- Kyle PalmieriAssists2
- Brock NelsonPoints2
Rangers- Artemi PanarinGoals1
- Chris KreiderAssists1
- Artemi PanarinPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Vincent Trocheck Goal Snap Shot0–2
- SO0:00Artemi Panarin Goal Wrist Shot0–2
- P315:43Artemi Panarin Goal (48) Snap Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (52)2–2
- P219:32Brock Nelson Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Hudson Fasching (9), Kyle Palmieri (23)2–1
- P211:42Brock Nelson Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Palmieri (22), Hudson Fasching (8)1–1
- P24:33Braden Schneider Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (45), Chris Kreider (34)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:33Braden Schneider Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (45), Chris Kreider (34)NYI 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 55% → 73% +18NYR 55% → 73%+18 pts
- P211:42Brock Nelson Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Palmieri (22), Hudson Fasching (8)NYI 1 – 1 NYR · NYI 26% → 45% +20NYI 26% → 45%+20 pts
- P219:32Brock Nelson Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Hudson Fasching (9), Kyle Palmieri (23)NYI 2 – 1 NYR · NYI 46% → 70% +24NYI 46% → 70%+24 pts
- P315:43Artemi Panarin Goal (48) Snap Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (52)NYI 2 – 2 NYR · NYR 9% → 52% +42NYR 9% → 52%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 64%
- Fair odds
- NYR -131
- NYI +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.9 – 3.3 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −4 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +97 Elo | NYR 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 56.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.48th of 31 |
| 22nd of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 2.87th of 31 |
| 23rd of 31−0.3 | Margin | +0.68th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3147.8% | Shot share | 50.6%14th of 31 |
| 10th of 3190.9% | Save percentage | 91.1%7th of 31 |
| 1st of 318–2 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 31 |
| 22nd of 3116–22 | Road vs home | 27–112nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYI 1–2 NYR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.