New Jersey Devils at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Paul CotterGoals1
- Nathan BastianAssists2
- Paul CotterPoints2
Sabres- Owen PowerGoals1
- Bowen ByramAssists1
- Owen PowerPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:28Paul Cotter Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Nathan Bastian (2)4–1
- P310:07Owen Power Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (1), Bowen Byram (1)3–1
- P23:29Nico Hischier Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan Bastian (1), Paul Cotter (1)3–0
- P115:38Johnathan Kovacevic Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonas Siegenthaler (1), Dawson Mercer (1)2–0
- P18:39Stefan Noesen Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Johnathan Kovacevic (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:39Stefan Noesen Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Johnathan Kovacevic (1)NJ 1 – 0 BUF · NJ 57% → 72% +15NJ 57% → 72%+15 pts
- P115:38Johnathan Kovacevic Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonas Siegenthaler (1), Dawson Mercer (1)NJ 2 – 0 BUF · NJ 72% → 85% +12NJ 72% → 85%+12 pts
- P23:29Nico Hischier Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan Bastian (1), Paul Cotter (1)NJ 3 – 0 BUF · NJ 86% → 94% +8NJ 86% → 94%+8 pts
- P310:07Owen Power Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (1), Bowen Byram (1)NJ 3 – 1 BUF · BUF <1% → 3% +3BUF <1% → 3%+3 pts
- P317:28Paul Cotter Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Nathan Bastian (2)NJ 4 – 1 BUF · NJ >99% → >99% +0NJ >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Devils 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- NJ 58%
- ML NJ -150 / BUF +130
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.1 pts
- NJ: Elo 49.9%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- NJ -138
- BUF +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.5 – 3.0 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Starting goalies | +21 | +6 | NJ: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.52 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +1 Elo | BUF 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 50.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NJ 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 31 |
| 26th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 31 |
| 20th of 31−0.2 | Margin | 0.017th of 31 |
| 15th of 3150.6% | Shot share | 51.2%12th of 31 |
| 27th of 3189.5% | Save percentage | 90.3%17th of 31 |
| 26th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NJ 2–1 BUF in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.