Florida Panthers at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Nate SchmidtGoals1
- A.J. GreerAssists1
- Nate SchmidtPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:48
Alex Tuch Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–5 - P218:42Sam Bennett Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Sam Reinhart (2), Evan Rodrigues (2)2–4
- P216:22Mattias Samuelsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (1), Ryan McLeod (1)1–4
- P21:34Henri Jokiharju Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (1), Jack Quinn (1)1–3
- P117:27Tage Thompson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (2), Connor Clifton (1)1–2
- P116:46Jordan Greenway Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Peyton Krebs (1)1–1
- P19:01Nate Schmidt Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: A.J. Greer (2), Jesper Boqvist (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:01Nate Schmidt Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: A.J. Greer (2), Jesper Boqvist (2)FLA 1 – 0 BUF · FLA 51% → 66% +15FLA 51% → 66%+15 pts
- P116:46Jordan Greenway Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Peyton Krebs (1)FLA 1 – 1 BUF · BUF 33% → 49% +17BUF 33% → 49%+17 pts
- P117:27Tage Thompson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (2), Connor Clifton (1)FLA 1 – 2 BUF · BUF 49% → 66% +17BUF 49% → 66%+17 pts
- P21:34Henri Jokiharju Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (1), Jack Quinn (1)FLA 1 – 3 BUF · BUF 67% → 81% +15BUF 67% → 81%+15 pts
- P216:22Mattias Samuelsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (1), Ryan McLeod (1)FLA 1 – 4 BUF · BUF 87% → 96% +8BUF 87% → 96%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Panthers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- FLA 51%
- ML FLA -115 / BUF -105
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- FLA: Elo 54.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- FLA -104
- BUF +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.8 – 2.7 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −19 | −19 | FLA: Spencer Knight (no track record yet) · BUF: Devon Levi: team allows 0.48 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +32 Elo | FLA 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 50.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | FLA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 31 |
| 1st of 31+0.8 | Margin | 0.017th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3154.7% | Shot share | 51.2%12th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3191.7% | Save percentage | 90.3%17th of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 1st of 3125–15 | Road vs home | 20–2020th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
FLA 3–0 BUF in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.