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Boston Bruins at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast

FinalESPN, ESPN+

Away

Bruins

0-1-0

4–6

at

Home

Panthers

1-0-0

BOS 41%FLA 59%

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Amerant Bank Arena · ESPN, ESPN+

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.

FLA favored BOS favored10 scoring plays
P1P2P3FLA50%BOS

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Bruins
Panthers

Scoring summary

  • P318:15David Pastrnak Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (1)4–6
  • P316:51Trent Frederic Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Brazeau (1)3–6
  • P36:26Evan Rodrigues Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (1), Aaron Ekblad (1)2–6
  • P212:32Charlie McAvoy Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: John Beecher (1), Hampus Lindholm (1)2–5
  • P29:12Jonah Gadjovich Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Boqvist (1), Uvis Balinskis (1)1–5
  • P119:34Sam Bennett Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: A.J. Greer (1)1–4
  • P118:34Sam Reinhart Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (1)1–3
  • P115:33Pavel Zacha Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (1), Andrew Peeke (1)1–2
  • P17:31Eetu Luostarinen Goal (1) Poke, assists: Anton Lundell (1), Sam Reinhart (1)0–2
  • P16:27Sam Bennett Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Evan Rodrigues (1)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P16:27Sam Bennett Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Evan Rodrigues (1)BOS 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 58% → 72% +14
  2. P17:31Eetu Luostarinen Goal (1) Poke, assists: Anton Lundell (1), Sam Reinhart (1)BOS 0 – 2 FLA · FLA 73% → 84% +11
  3. P115:33Pavel Zacha Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (1), Andrew Peeke (1)BOS 1 – 2 FLA · BOS 15% → 27% +12
  4. P118:34Sam Reinhart Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (1)BOS 1 – 3 FLA · FLA 73% → 86% +12
  5. P119:34Sam Bennett Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: A.J. Greer (1)BOS 1 – 4 FLA · FLA 86% → 94% +8

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Panthers 59%

LeanHit
BOS 41%FLA 59%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
FLA 59%
ML BOS +135 / FLA -155
Pre-line forecast
FLA 57%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
FLA 62%
Ratings vs. market
+3.5 pts
FLA: Elo 62.3%, market 58.8%
Fair odds
FLA -143
BOS +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
BOS 2.5 – 3.0 FLA
Margin from the forecast, posted total 5.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorBOSFLAWhy
Team rating15261557Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies−24−3BOS: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.61 more goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsFLA +87 EloFLA 62.3%
Market-implied ratingsFLA 55.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastFLA 56.5%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastFLA 58.8%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Boston Bruins and Florida Panthers compared, with each team's league rank
BOSStatFLA
13th of 313.2Goals scored3.214th of 31
5th of 312.7Goals allowed2.52nd of 31
9th of 31+0.5Margin+0.81st of 31
22nd of 3149.0%Shot share54.7%3rd of 31
3rd of 3191.6%Save percentage91.7%2nd of 31
6th of 316–4Last 106–46th of 31
7th of 3123–17Road vs home25–158th of 31

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

BruinsPanthers
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Head to head

BOS 6–4 FLA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 10.