Boston Bruins at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Mason LohreiGoals1
- Pavel ZachaAssists2
- Mason LohreiPoints2
Panthers- Matthew TkachukGoals1
- Aleksander BarkovAssists1
- Matthew TkachukPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:38Jake DeBrusk Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (6)5–1
- P37:13Justin Brazeau Goal (1) Backhand, assists: James van Riemsdyk (3), Mason Lohrei (2)4–1
- P219:39Brandon Carlo Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (3), Trent Frederic (1)3–1
- P216:17Mason Lohrei Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Parker Wotherspoon (1), Pavel Zacha (4)2–1
- P212:52Morgan Geekie Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (3), David Pastrnak (3)1–1
- P211:45Matthew Tkachuk Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P211:45Matthew Tkachuk Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (4)BOS 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 54% → 73% +20FLA 54% → 73%+20 pts
- P212:52Morgan Geekie Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (3), David Pastrnak (3)BOS 1 – 1 FLA · BOS 26% → 46% +20BOS 26% → 46%+20 pts
- P216:17Mason Lohrei Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Parker Wotherspoon (1), Pavel Zacha (4)BOS 2 – 1 FLA · BOS 46% → 69% +22BOS 46% → 69%+22 pts
- P219:39Brandon Carlo Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (3), Trent Frederic (1)BOS 3 – 1 FLA · BOS 71% → 88% +17BOS 71% → 88%+17 pts
- P37:13Justin Brazeau Goal (1) Backhand, assists: James van Riemsdyk (3), Mason Lohrei (2)BOS 4 – 1 FLA · BOS 94% → 99% +5BOS 94% → 99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Panthers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 58%
- Fair odds
- FLA -125
- BOS +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.9 – 3.2 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1567 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −2 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +54 Elo | FLA 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 55.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 31 |
| 5th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 2.52nd of 31 |
| 9th of 31+0.5 | Margin | +0.81st of 31 |
| 22nd of 3149.0% | Shot share | 54.7%3rd of 31 |
| 3rd of 3191.6% | Save percentage | 91.7%2nd of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 7th of 3123–17 | Road vs home | 25–158th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 4–0 FLA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.