Boston Bruins at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Brad MarchandGoals1
- Brad MarchandAssists1
- Brad MarchandPoints2
Maple Leafs- Mitch MarnerGoals1
- Ilya LyubushkinAssists1
- Mitch MarnerPoints1
Scoring summary
- P35:43Mitch Marner Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Ilya Lyubushkin (2), Tyler Bertuzzi (2)3–1
- P219:18David Pastrnak Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (5), Pavel Zacha (2)3–0
- P28:20Brad Marchand Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (4), Charlie Coyle (2)2–0
- P115:09James van Riemsdyk Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Mason Lohrei (1)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:09James van Riemsdyk Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Mason Lohrei (1)BOS 1 – 0 TOR · BOS 46% → 63% +17BOS 46% → 63%+17 pts
- P28:20Brad Marchand Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (4), Charlie Coyle (2)BOS 2 – 0 TOR · BOS 66% → 82% +16BOS 66% → 82%+16 pts
- P219:18David Pastrnak Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (5), Pavel Zacha (2)BOS 3 – 0 TOR · BOS 88% → 96% +8BOS 88% → 96%+8 pts
- P35:43Mitch Marner Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Ilya Lyubushkin (2), Tyler Bertuzzi (2)BOS 3 – 1 TOR · TOR 1% → 7% +6TOR 1% → 7%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Maple Leafs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 52%
- Fair odds
- TOR -120
- BOS +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.0 – 3.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −3 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) · TOR: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +15 Elo | TOR 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.72nd of 31 |
| 5th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 3.219th of 31 |
| 9th of 31+0.5 | Margin | +0.410th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3149.0% | Shot share | 52.3%7th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3191.6% | Save percentage | 89.8%23rd of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 7th of 3123–17 | Road vs home | 21–1917th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 6–1 TOR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.