Ottawa Senators at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Artem ZubGoals1
- Erik BrannstromAssists1
- Jakob ChychrunPoints1
Bruins- Pavel ZachaGoals1
- Kevin ShattenkirkAssists1
- Pavel ZachaPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:12Artem Zub Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
- P312:44Pavel Zacha Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Kevin Shattenkirk (18), David Pastrnak (63)2–1
- P210:54Jakob Chychrun Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (38), Brady Tkachuk (37)2–0
- P210:03Jiri Smejkal Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Brannstrom (17)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P210:03Jiri Smejkal Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Brannstrom (17)OTT 1 – 0 BOS · OTT 45% → 65% +20OTT 45% → 65%+20 pts
- P210:54Jakob Chychrun Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (38), Brady Tkachuk (37)OTT 2 – 0 BOS · OTT 66% → 82% +17OTT 66% → 82%+17 pts
- P312:44Pavel Zacha Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Kevin Shattenkirk (18), David Pastrnak (63)OTT 2 – 1 BOS · BOS 2% → 16% +14BOS 2% → 16%+14 pts
- P318:12Artem Zub Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: noneOTT 3 – 1 BOS · OTT 98% → >99% +2OTT 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bruins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 63%
- Fair odds
- BOS -131
- OTT +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.9 – 3.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | BOS and OTT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +3 | OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · BOS: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈26 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +92 Elo | BOS 63.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.311th of 31 |
| 25th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 2.75th of 31 |
| 23rd of 31−0.3 | Margin | +0.69th of 31 |
| 9th of 3152.1% | Shot share | 48.9%22nd of 31 |
| 31st of 3188.7% | Save percentage | 91.6%3rd of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 31 |
| 25th of 3115–24 | Road vs home | 23–1611th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OTT 0–2 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.