Montreal Canadiens at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Cole CaufieldGoals2
- David SavardAssists2
- Cole CaufieldPoints2
Senators- Brady TkachukGoals2
- Jake SandersonAssists3
- Brady TkachukPoints3
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Drake Batherson Goal Snap Shot0–1
- P318:55Thomas Chabot Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Drake Batherson (37), Jake Sanderson (28)4–4
- P315:49Alex Newhook Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Brendan Gallagher (14), David Savard (16)4–3
- P30:47Brady Tkachuk Goal (37) Backhand, assists: Drake Batherson (36), Jake Sanderson (27)3–3
- P213:05Cole Caufield Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (51), Alex Newhook (19)3–2
- P28:36Shane Pinto Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (43), Brady Tkachuk (36)2–2
- P21:37Cole Caufield Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Jayden Struble (6), David Savard (15)2–1
- P113:08Brady Tkachuk Goal (36) Backhand, assists: Jake Sanderson (26), Claude Giroux (42)1–1
- P19:11Mike Matheson Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:36Shane Pinto Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (43), Brady Tkachuk (36)MTL 2 – 2 OTT · OTT 35% → 54% +20OTT 35% → 54%+20 pts
- P213:05Cole Caufield Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (51), Alex Newhook (19)MTL 3 – 2 OTT · MTL 46% → 67% +21MTL 46% → 67%+21 pts
- P30:47Brady Tkachuk Goal (37) Backhand, assists: Drake Batherson (36), Jake Sanderson (27)MTL 3 – 3 OTT · OTT 29% → 53% +25OTT 29% → 53%+25 pts
- P315:49Alex Newhook Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Brendan Gallagher (14), David Savard (16)MTL 4 – 3 OTT · MTL 48% → 91% +43MTL 48% → 91%+43 pts
- P318:55Thomas Chabot Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Drake Batherson (37), Jake Sanderson (28)MTL 4 – 4 OTT · OTT <1% → 51% +50OTT <1% → 51%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Senators 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 60%
- Fair odds
- OTT -127
- MTL +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 2.9 – 3.3 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +2 | MTL: Cayden Primeau: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) · OTT: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +70 Elo | OTT 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 56.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.115th of 31 |
| 28th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.425th of 31 |
| 27th of 31−0.7 | Margin | −0.322nd of 31 |
| 28th of 3145.7% | Shot share | 52.0%9th of 31 |
| 21st of 3190.2% | Save percentage | 88.8%31st of 31 |
| 15th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 27th of 3114–24 | Road vs home | 18–1923rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MTL 0–2 OTT in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.