Ottawa Senators at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators
Rangers- Artemi PanarinGoals1
- Chris KreiderAssists2
- Artemi PanarinPoints2
Scoring summary
- P313:00Alexis Lafrenière Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Gustafsson (25), Artemi Panarin (71)0–4
- P34:34Artemi Panarin Goal (49) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Lindgren (14), Adam Fox (56)0–3
- P28:58Adam Fox Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Chris Kreider (36), Mika Zibanejad (46)0–2
- P15:55Jack Roslovic Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (35)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:55Jack Roslovic Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (35)OTT 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 56% → 71% +14NYR 56% → 71%+14 pts
- P28:58Adam Fox Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Chris Kreider (36), Mika Zibanejad (46)OTT 0 – 2 NYR · NYR 74% → 87% +14NYR 74% → 87%+14 pts
- P34:34Artemi Panarin Goal (49) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Lindgren (14), Adam Fox (56)OTT 0 – 3 NYR · NYR 94% → 99% +5NYR 94% → 99%+5 pts
- P313:00Alexis Lafrenière Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: Erik Gustafsson (25), Artemi Panarin (71)OTT 0 – 4 NYR · NYR >99% → >99% +0NYR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 64%
- Fair odds
- NYR -131
- OTT +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.9 – 3.3 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −3 | OTT: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +97 Elo | NYR 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 56.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.48th of 31 |
| 25th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 2.87th of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.3 | Margin | +0.68th of 31 |
| 8th of 3152.2% | Shot share | 50.7%14th of 31 |
| 31st of 3188.7% | Save percentage | 91.2%6th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 31 |
| 25th of 3115–23 | Road vs home | 28–112nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OTT 1–1 NYR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.