Boston Bruins at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Pavel ZachaGoals1
- Charlie CoyleAssists2
- Pavel ZachaPoints2
Penguins- Drew O'ConnorGoals1
- Drew O'ConnorAssists1
- Evgeni MalkinPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:39Evgeni Malkin Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (33), Rickard Rakell (22)6–4
- P317:13Danton Heinen Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (62)6–3
- P314:10Morgan Geekie Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Jakub Lauko (8), Trent Frederic (22)5–3
- P34:32Drew O'Connor Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Lars Eller (15)4–3
- P215:52Michael Bunting Goal (19) Tip-In, assists: Evgeni Malkin (39), Erik Karlsson (43)4–2
- P214:54Brad Marchand Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (35)4–1
- P211:35Kevin Shattenkirk Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (61), Pavel Zacha (38)3–1
- P210:27Bryan Rust Goal (28) Tip-In, assists: Drew O'Connor (17), Sidney Crosby (49)2–1
- P28:22Pavel Zacha Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (9), Charlie McAvoy (35)2–0
- P28:08Jake DeBrusk Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Peeke (9), Charlie Coyle (34)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P28:08Jake DeBrusk Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrew Peeke (9), Charlie Coyle (34)BOS 1 – 0 PIT · BOS 47% → 67% +19BOS 47% → 67%+19 pts
- P28:22Pavel Zacha Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (9), Charlie McAvoy (35)BOS 2 – 0 PIT · BOS 67% → 83% +16BOS 67% → 83%+16 pts
- P210:27Bryan Rust Goal (28) Tip-In, assists: Drew O'Connor (17), Sidney Crosby (49)BOS 2 – 1 PIT · PIT 16% → 32% +16PIT 16% → 32%+16 pts
- P211:35Kevin Shattenkirk Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (61), Pavel Zacha (38)BOS 3 – 1 PIT · BOS 68% → 84% +16BOS 68% → 84%+16 pts
- P34:32Drew O'Connor Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Lars Eller (15)BOS 4 – 3 PIT · PIT 8% → 25% +17PIT 8% → 25%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Penguins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 49%
- Fair odds
- PIT -116
- BOS +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.0 – 3.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −3 | BOS: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈25 weighted starts) · PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +10 Elo | BOS 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 31 |
| 5th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 31 |
| 8th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.116th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3148.9% | Shot share | 51.7%10th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3191.6% | Save percentage | 90.5%14th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 31 |
| 8th of 3122–16 | Road vs home | 21–1714th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 1–1 PIT in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.