Detroit Red Wings at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Lucas RaymondGoals3
- Alex DeBrincatAssists3
- Lucas RaymondPoints4
Penguins- Sidney CrosbyGoals1
- Sidney CrosbyAssists2
- Sidney CrosbyPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT1:40Erik Karlsson Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (48), Rickard Rakell (21)5–6
- P314:53Lucas Raymond Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (33), Alex DeBrincat (39)5–5
- P312:56Dylan Larkin Goal (32) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (39), J.T. Compher (27)4–5
- P33:32Jeff Carter Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–5
- P219:24Jeff Petry Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (33), Daniel Sprong (24)3–4
- P212:44Bryan Rust Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (27)2–4
- P27:58Sidney Crosby Goal (41) Tip-In, assists: Bryan Rust (27), Reilly Smith (26)2–3
- P119:46Lucas Raymond Goal (28) Backhand, assists: Alex DeBrincat (38), Dylan Larkin (32)2–2
- P115:09Kris Letang Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (32), Rickard Rakell (20)1–2
- P13:39Lucas Raymond Goal (27) Backhand, assists: Alex DeBrincat (37)1–1
- P12:40Drew O'Connor Goal (15) Backhand, assists: Bryan Rust (26), Sidney Crosby (47)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:09Kris Letang Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (32), Rickard Rakell (20)DET 1 – 2 PIT · PIT 54% → 70% +16PIT 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P119:46Lucas Raymond Goal (28) Backhand, assists: Alex DeBrincat (38), Dylan Larkin (32)DET 2 – 2 PIT · DET 29% → 46% +17DET 29% → 46%+17 pts
- P27:58Sidney Crosby Goal (41) Tip-In, assists: Bryan Rust (27), Reilly Smith (26)DET 2 – 3 PIT · PIT 54% → 72% +19PIT 54% → 72%+19 pts
- P314:53Lucas Raymond Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (33), Alex DeBrincat (39)DET 5 – 5 PIT · DET 10% → 49% +39DET 10% → 49%+39 pts
- OT1:40Erik Karlsson Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (48), Rickard Rakell (21)DET 5 – 6 PIT · PIT 51% → 94% +43PIT 51% → 94%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Penguins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 54%
- Fair odds
- PIT -122
- DET +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.9 – 3.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | 0 | DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +29 Elo | PIT 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 31 |
| 21st of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 31 |
| 15th of 31+0.1 | Margin | +0.116th of 31 |
| 26th of 3146.7% | Shot share | 51.7%10th of 31 |
| 15th of 3190.5% | Save percentage | 90.6%13th of 31 |
| 18th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 20th of 3116–20 | Road vs home | 20–1716th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 1–1 PIT in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.