Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- David KampfGoals1
- Ryan ReavesAssists1
- David KampfPoints1
Bruins- Jake DeBruskGoals2
- Brad MarchandAssists2
- Jake DeBruskPoints3
Scoring summary
- P317:52Trent Frederic Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (1)1–5
- P31:39David Kampf Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Dewar (1), Ryan Reaves (1)1–4
- P217:34Jake DeBrusk Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Brad Marchand (2), Charlie McAvoy (2)0–4
- P215:02Jake DeBrusk Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (1), Brad Marchand (1)0–3
- P25:47Brandon Carlo Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jake DeBrusk (1), Hampus Lindholm (1)0–2
- P12:26John Beecher Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Boqvist (1), Pat Maroon (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:26John Beecher Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jesper Boqvist (1), Pat Maroon (1)TOR 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 55% → 69% +14BOS 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P25:47Brandon Carlo Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jake DeBrusk (1), Hampus Lindholm (1)TOR 0 – 2 BOS · BOS 72% → 86% +14BOS 72% → 86%+14 pts
- P215:02Jake DeBrusk Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (1), Brad Marchand (1)TOR 0 – 3 BOS · BOS 89% → 96% +7BOS 89% → 96%+7 pts
- P217:34Jake DeBrusk Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Brad Marchand (2), Charlie McAvoy (2)TOR 0 – 4 BOS · BOS 97% → >99% +2BOS 97% → >99%+2 pts
- P31:39David Kampf Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Dewar (1), Ryan Reaves (1)TOR 1 – 4 BOS · TOR <1% → 2% +2TOR <1% → 2%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bruins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 56%
- Fair odds
- BOS -123
- TOR +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.9 – 3.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −2 | TOR: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈29 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +39 Elo | BOS 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.213th of 31 |
| 19th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 2.75th of 31 |
| 10th of 31+0.4 | Margin | +0.59th of 31 |
| 7th of 3152.3% | Shot share | 49.0%22nd of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.8% | Save percentage | 91.6%3rd of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 8th of 3121–17 | Road vs home | 23–1713th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 0–4 BOS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.