Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Ryan ReavesGoals1
- David KampfAssists2
- David KampfPoints2
Lightning- Nick PaulGoals1
- Steven StamkosAssists2
- Nikita KucherovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:25John Tavares Goal (29) Slap Shot, assists: William Nylander (58), Conor Timmins (9)4–6
- P316:20Pontus Holmberg Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicholas Robertson (13)3–6
- P314:02TJ Brodie Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Connor Dewar (8), David Kampf (11)2–6
- P311:27Tanner Jeannot Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Eyssimont (14), Mitchell Chaffee (3)1–6
- P217:57Brandon Hagel Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Calvin de Haan (7)1–5
- P217:05Brayden Point Goal (46) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (100), Darren Raddysh (27)1–4
- P26:37Anthony Duclair Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicholas Paul (22), Steven Stamkos (41)1–3
- P113:18Ryan Reaves Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: David Kampf (10), Connor Dewar (7)1–2
- P16:14Nikita Kucherov Goal (44) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (49), Steven Stamkos (40)0–2
- P13:58Nicholas Paul Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Anthony Duclair (18), Mathew Dumba (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:58Nicholas Paul Goal (24) Tip-In, assists: Anthony Duclair (18), Mathew Dumba (8)TOR 0 – 1 TB · TB 58% → 72% +14TB 58% → 72%+14 pts
- P16:14Nikita Kucherov Goal (44) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Hagel (49), Steven Stamkos (40)TOR 0 – 2 TB · TB 72% → 84% +11TB 72% → 84%+11 pts
- P113:18Ryan Reaves Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: David Kampf (10), Connor Dewar (7)TOR 1 – 2 TB · TOR 15% → 27% +12TOR 15% → 27%+12 pts
- P26:37Anthony Duclair Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicholas Paul (22), Steven Stamkos (41)TOR 1 – 3 TB · TB 74% → 87% +13TB 74% → 87%+13 pts
- P217:05Brayden Point Goal (46) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (100), Darren Raddysh (27)TOR 1 – 4 TB · TB 91% → 97% +7TB 91% → 97%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lightning 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 56%
- Fair odds
- TB -141
- TOR +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.9 – 3.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +10 | −9 | TOR: Martin Jones: team allows 0.26 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · TB: Matt Tomkins: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +39 Elo | TB 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 58.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.55th of 31 |
| 18th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.321st of 31 |
| 10th of 31+0.5 | Margin | +0.314th of 31 |
| 7th of 3152.2% | Shot share | 49.4%21st of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.9% | Save percentage | 89.7%25th of 31 |
| 9th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 8th of 3121–16 | Road vs home | 23–1611th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 2–1 TB in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.