Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Noah GregorGoals1
- Mitch MarnerAssists1
- John TavaresPoints1
Panthers- Sam ReinhartGoals2
- Aleksander BarkovAssists2
- Sam ReinhartPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:40Sam Reinhart Goal (57) Wrist Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (15)2–5
- P213:42Brandon Montour Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (57), Vladimir Tarasenko (32)2–4
- P210:42Sam Reinhart Goal (56) Wrist Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (56)2–3
- P210:32Sam Bennett Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Gustav Forsling (29), Matthew Tkachuk (62)2–2
- P20:28Carter Verhaeghe Goal (34) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (21), Matthew Tkachuk (61)2–1
- P111:18Noah Gregor Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–0
- P13:25John Tavares Goal (28) Tip-In, assists: Mitch Marner (59), Morgan Rielly (51)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:25John Tavares Goal (28) Tip-In, assists: Mitch Marner (59), Morgan Rielly (51)TOR 1 – 0 FLA · TOR 44% → 59% +15TOR 44% → 59%+15 pts
- P111:18Noah Gregor Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: noneTOR 2 – 0 FLA · TOR 61% → 75% +14TOR 61% → 75%+14 pts
- P20:28Carter Verhaeghe Goal (34) Snap Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (21), Matthew Tkachuk (61)TOR 2 – 1 FLA · FLA 22% → 37% +15FLA 22% → 37%+15 pts
- P210:32Sam Bennett Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Gustav Forsling (29), Matthew Tkachuk (62)TOR 2 – 2 FLA · FLA 34% → 54% +20FLA 34% → 54%+20 pts
- P210:42Sam Reinhart Goal (56) Wrist Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (56)TOR 2 – 3 FLA · FLA 54% → 73% +19FLA 54% → 73%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Panthers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 59%
- Fair odds
- FLA -126
- TOR +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.9 – 3.2 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +8 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · FLA: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +63 Elo | FLA 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 55.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 31 |
| 18th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 2.52nd of 31 |
| 10th of 31+0.5 | Margin | +0.72nd of 31 |
| 7th of 3152.4% | Shot share | 54.6%3rd of 31 |
| 22nd of 3189.9% | Save percentage | 91.7%2nd of 31 |
| 8th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 7th of 3121–15 | Road vs home | 24–158th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 2–1 FLA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.