Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals2
- Patrick KaneAssists2
- Alex DeBrincatPoints2
Maple Leafs- Mitch MarnerGoals1
- Mitch MarnerAssists2
- Mitch MarnerPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT0:41Dylan Larkin Goal (33) Tip-In, assists: Patrick Kane (26), Shayne Gostisbehere (41)5–4
- P217:22John Tavares Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (58)4–4
- P210:23Auston Matthews Goal (69) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (57), Morgan Rielly (50)4–3
- P29:04Nicholas Robertson Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–2
- P119:41David Perron Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Patrick Kane (25), J.T. Compher (29)4–1
- P117:37Alex DeBrincat Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (28), Robby Fabbri (14)3–1
- P113:39Simon Edvinsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: David Perron (28), Jeff Petry (21)2–1
- P110:02Alex DeBrincat Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (40), Dylan Larkin (34)1–1
- P18:35Mitch Marner Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (57), Morgan Rielly (49)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:39Simon Edvinsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: David Perron (28), Jeff Petry (21)DET 2 – 1 TOR · DET 44% → 61% +16DET 44% → 61%+16 pts
- P117:37Alex DeBrincat Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (28), Robby Fabbri (14)DET 3 – 1 TOR · DET 62% → 77% +15DET 62% → 77%+15 pts
- P210:23Auston Matthews Goal (69) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (57), Morgan Rielly (50)DET 4 – 3 TOR · TOR 18% → 34% +16TOR 18% → 34%+16 pts
- P217:22John Tavares Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (58)DET 4 – 4 TOR · TOR 31% → 54% +23TOR 31% → 54%+23 pts
- OT0:41Dylan Larkin Goal (33) Tip-In, assists: Patrick Kane (26), Shayne Gostisbehere (41)DET 5 – 4 TOR · DET 48% → 91% +42DET 48% → 91%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Maple Leafs 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 61%
- Fair odds
- TOR -129
- DET +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 2.9 – 3.3 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +1 | DET: James Reimer: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · TOR: Ilya Samsonov: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈27 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +81 Elo | TOR 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 56.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.72nd of 31 |
| 23rd of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.118th of 31 |
| 15th of 31+0.1 | Margin | +0.510th of 31 |
| 25th of 3146.8% | Shot share | 52.4%7th of 31 |
| 15th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 90.0%22nd of 31 |
| 24th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 21st of 3116–21 | Road vs home | 21–1816th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 1–1 TOR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.