Florida Panthers at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Matthew TkachukGoals2
- Carter VerhaegheAssists2
- Matthew TkachukPoints2
Lightning- Nick PaulGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists1
- Steven StamkosPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:28Matthew Tkachuk Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (3), Gustav Forsling (3)5–3
- P314:50Nicholas Paul Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Duclair (2), Erik Cernak (1)4–3
- P39:41Steven Lorentz Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Cousins (1), Gustav Forsling (2)4–2
- P216:30Brandon Montour Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Steven Lorentz (1), Kyle Okposo (1)3–2
- P29:58Sam Reinhart Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (1), Brandon Montour (1)2–2
- P22:56Tyler Motte Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tanner Jeannot (1)1–2
- P20:44Steven Stamkos Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Victor Hedman (3), Nikita Kucherov (3)1–1
- P110:39Matthew Tkachuk Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (2), Carter Verhaeghe (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:39Matthew Tkachuk Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (2), Carter Verhaeghe (2)FLA 1 – 0 TB · FLA 46% → 62% +16FLA 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P20:44Steven Stamkos Goal (3) Deflected, assists: Victor Hedman (3), Nikita Kucherov (3)FLA 1 – 1 TB · TB 36% → 53% +18TB 36% → 53%+18 pts
- P22:56Tyler Motte Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tanner Jeannot (1)FLA 1 – 2 TB · TB 53% → 71% +18TB 53% → 71%+18 pts
- P29:58Sam Reinhart Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (1), Brandon Montour (1)FLA 2 – 2 TB · FLA 28% → 47% +19FLA 28% → 47%+19 pts
- P216:30Brandon Montour Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Steven Lorentz (1), Kyle Okposo (1)FLA 3 – 2 TB · FLA 47% → 70% +22FLA 47% → 70%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lightning 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 50%
- Fair odds
- TB -118
- FLA +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.0 – 3.2 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +3 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +1 Elo | TB 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.55th of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 3.321st of 31 |
| 1st of 31+0.8 | Margin | +0.314th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3154.7% | Shot share | 49.3%21st of 31 |
| 2nd of 3191.7% | Save percentage | 89.6%26th of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 1st of 3125–15 | Road vs home | 24–1611th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
FLA 4–1 TB in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.