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Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast

Final/OTBOS leads series 3-2

Away

Maple Leafs

46-26-10

2–1

at

Home

Bruins

47-20-15

TOR 44%BOS 56%

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TD Garden · ESPN, NESN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.

BOS favored TOR favored3 scoring plays
P1P2P3OTBOS50%TOR

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Maple Leafs
Bruins

Scoring summary

  • OT2:26Matthew Knies Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (1), Ilya Lyubushkin (3)2–1
  • P113:54Trent Frederic Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Pat Maroon (2)1–1
  • P15:33Jake McCabe Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (2), Max Domi (3)1–0

Turning points

The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P15:33Jake McCabe Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (2), Max Domi (3)TOR 1 – 0 BOS · TOR 44% → 60% +15
  2. P113:54Trent Frederic Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Pat Maroon (2)TOR 1 – 1 BOS · BOS 39% → 55% +16
  3. OT2:26Matthew Knies Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (1), Ilya Lyubushkin (3)TOR 2 – 1 BOS · TOR 49% → 96% +47

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.

Bruins 56%

LeanMiss
TOR 44%BOS 56%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
BOS 56%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
BOS 59%
Fair odds
BOS -127
TOR +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
TOR 2.9 – 3.2 BOS
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorTORBOSWhy
Team rating15201544Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies−4+3TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈30 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsBOS +66 EloBOS 59.4%
Market-implied ratingsBOS 55.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastBOS 55.9%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Toronto Maple Leafs and Boston Bruins compared, with each team's league rank
TORStatBOS
2nd of 313.7Goals scored3.213th of 31
19th of 313.2Goals allowed2.75th of 31
10th of 31+0.4Margin+0.59th of 31
7th of 3152.3%Shot share49.0%22nd of 31
23rd of 3189.8%Save percentage91.6%3rd of 31
12th of 315–5Last 106–46th of 31
8th of 3121–17Road vs home23–1713th of 31

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

Maple LeafsBruins
145015001550league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Head to head

TOR 1–7 BOS in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.