Skip to content
ShadowCryptsPredictions
Live
NHL games
Updated

Boston Bruins at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast

FinalSeries tied 3-3

Away

Bruins

47-20-15

1–2

at

Home

Maple Leafs

46-26-10

BOS 46%TOR 54%

You didn't pick this one.

Scotiabank Arena · TBS, NESN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.

TOR favored BOS favored3 scoring plays
P1P2P3TOR50%BOS

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Maple Leafs

Scoring summary

  • P319:59Morgan Geekie Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Shattenkirk (1), James van Riemsdyk (1)1–2
  • P317:47William Nylander Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Matthew Knies (1), Morgan Rielly (3)0–2
  • P219:05William Nylander Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Timothy Liljegren (1), Morgan Rielly (2)0–1

Turning points

The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P219:05William Nylander Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Timothy Liljegren (1), Morgan Rielly (2)BOS 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 53% → 75% +23
  2. P317:47William Nylander Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Matthew Knies (1), Morgan Rielly (3)BOS 0 – 2 TOR · TOR 97% → >99% +3
  3. P319:59Morgan Geekie Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Shattenkirk (1), James van Riemsdyk (1)BOS 1 – 2 TOR · BOS 0% → 0% +0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.

Maple Leafs 54%

Toss-upHit
BOS 46%TOR 54%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
TOR 54%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
TOR 52%
Fair odds
TOR -119
BOS +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
BOS 3.0 – 3.2 TOR
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorBOSTORWhy
Team rating15411523Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+30BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈31 weighted starts) · TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsTOR +14 EloTOR 51.9%
Market-implied ratingsTOR 55.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastTOR 54.4%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs compared, with each team's league rank
BOSStatTOR
13th of 313.2Goals scored3.72nd of 31
5th of 312.7Goals allowed3.219th of 31
9th of 31+0.5Margin+0.410th of 31
22nd of 3149.0%Shot share52.3%7th of 31
3rd of 3191.6%Save percentage89.8%23rd of 31
6th of 316–4Last 105–512th of 31
7th of 3123–17Road vs home21–1917th of 31

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

BruinsMaple Leafs
145015001550league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Head to head

BOS 7–2 TOR in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.