Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Victor HedmanGoals1
- Nikita KucherovAssists1
- Victor HedmanPoints1
Panthers- Aleksander BarkovGoals2
- Matthew TkachukAssists2
- Aleksander BarkovPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:50Niko Mikkola Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (4), Eetu Luostarinen (2)1–6
- P316:03Carter Verhaeghe Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (6)1–5
- P314:16Evan Rodrigues Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Kevin Stenlund (1), Vladimir Tarasenko (2)1–4
- P311:06Aleksander Barkov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (5), Carter Verhaeghe (4)1–3
- P213:37Victor Hedman Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (7), Brandon Hagel (2)1–2
- P212:38Aleksander Barkov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (2), Gustav Forsling (4)0–2
- P20:45Carter Verhaeghe Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (3), Niko Mikkola (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:45Carter Verhaeghe Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (3), Niko Mikkola (1)TB 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 55% → 72% +17FLA 55% → 72%+17 pts
- P212:38Aleksander Barkov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Aaron Ekblad (2), Gustav Forsling (4)TB 0 – 2 FLA · FLA 74% → 88% +14FLA 74% → 88%+14 pts
- P213:37Victor Hedman Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (7), Brandon Hagel (2)TB 1 – 2 FLA · TB 12% → 26% +14TB 12% → 26%+14 pts
- P311:06Aleksander Barkov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (5), Carter Verhaeghe (4)TB 1 – 3 FLA · FLA 84% → 97% +13FLA 84% → 97%+13 pts
- P314:16Evan Rodrigues Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Kevin Stenlund (1), Vladimir Tarasenko (2)TB 1 – 4 FLA · FLA >99% → >99% +1FLA >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Panthers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 59%
- Fair odds
- FLA -127
- TB +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 2.9 – 3.2 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −4 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +66 Elo | FLA 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 31 |
| 21st of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 2.52nd of 31 |
| 14th of 31+0.3 | Margin | +0.81st of 31 |
| 21st of 3149.3% | Shot share | 54.7%3rd of 31 |
| 26th of 3189.6% | Save percentage | 91.7%2nd of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 13th of 3120–20 | Road vs home | 25–158th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 2–5 FLA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.