Florida Panthers at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Aleksander BarkovGoals1
- Aleksander BarkovAssists1
- Aleksander BarkovPoints2
Oilers- Ryan McLeodGoals1
- Connor McDavidAssists2
- Connor McDavidPoints2
Scoring summary
- P314:43Ryan McLeod Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Brett Kulak (5), Connor McDavid (29)4–3
- P36:02Philip Broberg Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (28), Darnell Nurse (4)4–2
- P215:31Aleksander Barkov Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (6), Sam Reinhart (6)4–1
- P213:57Sam Bennett Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (15)3–1
- P29:12Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (6), Anton Lundell (12)2–1
- P21:49Warren Foegele Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Henrique (3)1–1
- P118:58Sam Reinhart Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Gustav Forsling (8), Aleksander Barkov (14)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:58Sam Reinhart Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Gustav Forsling (8), Aleksander Barkov (14)FLA 1 – 0 EDM · FLA 47% → 64% +17FLA 47% → 64%+17 pts
- P21:49Warren Foegele Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Henrique (3)FLA 1 – 1 EDM · EDM 35% → 53% +18EDM 35% → 53%+18 pts
- P29:12Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (6), Anton Lundell (12)FLA 2 – 1 EDM · FLA 47% → 67% +20FLA 47% → 67%+20 pts
- P213:57Sam Bennett Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (15)FLA 3 – 1 EDM · FLA 69% → 85% +16FLA 69% → 85%+16 pts
- P314:43Ryan McLeod Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Brett Kulak (5), Connor McDavid (29)FLA 4 – 3 EDM · EDM <1% → 12% +11EDM <1% → 12%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Oilers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 51%
- Fair odds
- EDM -118
- FLA +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.9 – 3.2 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1587 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | 0 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +4 Elo | EDM 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 54.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.64th of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 2.98th of 31 |
| 1st of 31+0.8 | Margin | +0.72nd of 31 |
| 3rd of 3154.7% | Shot share | 54.5%4th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3191.7% | Save percentage | 90.5%12th of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 1st of 3125–15 | Road vs home | 27–123rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
FLA 4–0 EDM in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.