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Dallas Stars at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast

FinalEDM wins series 4-2

Away

Stars

52-21-9

1–2

at

Home

Oilers

49-27-6

DAL 45%EDM 55%

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Rogers Place · TNT, truTV, HBO Max

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.

EDM favored DAL favored3 scoring plays
P1P2P3EDM50%DAL

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Scoring summary

  • P39:18Mason Marchment Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Seguin (8), Chris Tanev (2)1–2
  • P115:42Zach Hyman Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (26), Evan Bouchard (21)0–2
  • P14:17Connor McDavid Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Leon Draisaitl (18), Evan Bouchard (20)0–1

Turning points

The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P14:17Connor McDavid Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Leon Draisaitl (18), Evan Bouchard (20)DAL 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 55% → 69% +14
  2. P115:42Zach Hyman Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (26), Evan Bouchard (21)DAL 0 – 2 EDM · EDM 70% → 83% +13
  3. P39:18Mason Marchment Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Seguin (8), Chris Tanev (2)DAL 1 – 2 EDM · DAL 4% → 18% +14

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.

Oilers 55%

LeanHit
DAL 45%EDM 55%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
EDM 55%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
EDM 56%
Fair odds
EDM -123
DAL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
DAL 2.9 – 3.2 EDM
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorDALEDMWhy
Team rating15611567Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+1+1DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsEDM +41 EloEDM 55.8%
Market-implied ratingsEDM 55.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastEDM 55.2%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers compared, with each team's league rank
DALStatEDM
3rd of 313.6Goals scored3.64th of 31
9th of 312.9Goals allowed2.98th of 31
2nd of 31+0.7Margin+0.72nd of 31
8th of 3152.3%Shot share54.5%4th of 31
15th of 3190.4%Save percentage90.5%12th of 31
1st of 318–2Last 106–46th of 31
1st of 3125–15Road vs home27–123rd of 31

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

StarsOilers
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Head to head

DAL 4–4 EDM in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.