Edmonton Oilers at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Zach HymanGoals1
- Zach HymanAssists1
- Zach HymanPoints2
Stars- Tyler SeguinGoals2
- Evgenii DadonovAssists1
- Tyler SeguinPoints2
Scoring summary
- 2OT0:32Connor McDavid Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Evan Bouchard (16), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (13)3–2
- P316:37Tyler Seguin Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgenii Dadonov (4), Jason Robertson (10)2–2
- P26:11Tyler Seguin Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (6)2–1
- P24:17Zach Hyman Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (20)2–0
- P20:58Leon Draisaitl Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Brett Kulak (4), Zach Hyman (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:58Leon Draisaitl Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Brett Kulak (4), Zach Hyman (3)EDM 1 – 0 DAL · EDM 46% → 64% +18EDM 46% → 64%+18 pts
- P24:17Zach Hyman Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (20)EDM 2 – 0 DAL · EDM 65% → 80% +16EDM 65% → 80%+16 pts
- P26:11Tyler Seguin Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (6)EDM 2 – 1 DAL · DAL 19% → 35% +16DAL 19% → 35%+16 pts
- P316:37Tyler Seguin Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgenii Dadonov (4), Jason Robertson (10)EDM 2 – 2 DAL · DAL 7% → 51% +45DAL 7% → 51%+45 pts
- 2OT0:32Connor McDavid Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Evan Bouchard (16), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (13)EDM 3 – 2 DAL · EDM 49% → 90% +42EDM 49% → 90%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Stars 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 56%
- Fair odds
- DAL -123
- EDM +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 2.9 – 3.2 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +5 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +42 Elo | DAL 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 55.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.63rd of 31 |
| 8th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 31 |
| 2nd of 31+0.7 | Margin | +0.72nd of 31 |
| 4th of 3154.5% | Shot share | 52.3%8th of 31 |
| 12th of 3190.5% | Save percentage | 90.4%15th of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 11th of 3120–19 | Road vs home | 24–159th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
EDM 1–2 DAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.