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Edmonton Oilers at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast

FinalEDM wins series 4-3

Away

Oilers

49-27-6

3–2

at

Home

Canucks

50-23-9

EDM 46%VAN 54%

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Rogers Arena · ESPN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.

VAN favored EDM favored5 scoring plays
P1P2P3VAN50%EDM

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Canucks

Scoring summary

  • P315:24Filip Hronek Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (10), Elias Lindholm (5)3–2
  • P311:27Conor Garland Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
  • P215:22Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (15), Leon Draisaitl (16)3–0
  • P25:50Zach Hyman Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Evan Bouchard (14), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (12)2–0
  • P21:16Cody Ceci Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Brett Kulak (3), Dylan Holloway (1)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P21:16Cody Ceci Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Brett Kulak (3), Dylan Holloway (1)EDM 1 – 0 VAN · EDM 46% → 64% +18
  2. P25:50Zach Hyman Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Evan Bouchard (14), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (12)EDM 2 – 0 VAN · EDM 66% → 81% +16
  3. P215:22Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (15), Leon Draisaitl (16)EDM 3 – 0 VAN · EDM 86% → 95% +9
  4. P311:27Conor Garland Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneEDM 3 – 1 VAN · VAN <1% → 3% +3
  5. P315:24Filip Hronek Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (10), Elias Lindholm (5)EDM 3 – 2 VAN · VAN <1% → 10% +9

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.

Canucks 54%

Toss-upMiss
EDM 46%VAN 54%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
VAN 54%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
VAN 52%
Fair odds
VAN -119
EDM +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
EDM 2.9 – 3.2 VAN
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorEDMVANWhy
Team rating15611540Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies−1−3EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · VAN: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsVAN +12 EloVAN 51.8%
Market-implied ratingsVAN 55.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastVAN 54.4%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Edmonton Oilers and Vancouver Canucks compared, with each team's league rank
EDMStatVAN
4th of 313.6Goals scored3.47th of 31
8th of 312.9Goals allowed2.76th of 31
2nd of 31+0.7Margin+0.75th of 31
4th of 3154.5%Shot share49.6%19th of 31
12th of 3190.5%Save percentage90.9%9th of 31
6th of 316–4Last 105–512th of 31
11th of 3120–19Road vs home26–135th of 31

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

OilersCanucks
135014001450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Head to head

EDM 3–7 VAN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.