Edmonton Oilers at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Zach HymanGoals2
- Ryan Nugent-HopkinsAssists2
- Zach HymanPoints2
Canucks- Dakota JoshuaGoals1
- Dakota JoshuaAssists2
- Dakota JoshuaPoints3
Scoring summary
- P314:26Conor Garland Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Dakota Joshua (4), Nikita Zadorov (2)4–5
- P313:47Nikita Zadorov Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Teddy Blueger (2), Nils Hoglander (1)4–4
- P39:38J.T. Miller Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Brock Boeser (3), Carson Soucy (3)4–3
- P217:01Elias Lindholm Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Dakota Joshua (3), Carson Soucy (2)4–2
- P213:11Zach Hyman Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Evan Bouchard (9), Connor McDavid (12)4–1
- P212:26Cody Ceci Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Derek Ryan (1), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (7)3–1
- P20:53Dakota Joshua Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ian Cole (2), Elias Lindholm (2)2–1
- P115:01Mattias Ekholm Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (7)2–0
- P12:11Zach Hyman Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (6), Leon Draisaitl (6)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:53Dakota Joshua Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ian Cole (2), Elias Lindholm (2)EDM 2 – 1 VAN · VAN 21% → 36% +15VAN 21% → 36%+15 pts
- P212:26Cody Ceci Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Derek Ryan (1), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (7)EDM 3 – 1 VAN · EDM 68% → 84% +16EDM 68% → 84%+16 pts
- P39:38J.T. Miller Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Brock Boeser (3), Carson Soucy (3)EDM 4 – 3 VAN · VAN 4% → 20% +16VAN 4% → 20%+16 pts
- P313:47Nikita Zadorov Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Teddy Blueger (2), Nils Hoglander (1)EDM 4 – 4 VAN · VAN 14% → 52% +38VAN 14% → 52%+38 pts
- P314:26Conor Garland Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Dakota Joshua (4), Nikita Zadorov (2)EDM 4 – 5 VAN · VAN 52% → 89% +38VAN 52% → 89%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canucks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 55%
- Fair odds
- VAN -122
- EDM +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 2.9 – 3.2 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +14 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · VAN: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.35 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +32 Elo | VAN 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.47th of 31 |
| 8th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 31 |
| 2nd of 31+0.7 | Margin | +0.75th of 31 |
| 4th of 3154.5% | Shot share | 49.6%19th of 31 |
| 12th of 3190.5% | Save percentage | 90.9%9th of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 11th of 3120–19 | Road vs home | 26–135th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
EDM 0–4 VAN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.