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Vancouver Canucks at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast

FinalVAN wins series 4-2

Away

Canucks

50-23-9

1–0

at

Home

Predators

47-30-5

VAN 45%NSH 55%

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Bridgestone Arena · TNT

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors NSH.

NSH75%50%75%VANStartP1P2Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Canucks
Predators

    Scoring summary

    • P318:21Pius Suter Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (2), Elias Pettersson (3)1–0

    Turning points

    The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

    1. P318:21Pius Suter Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (2), Elias Pettersson (3)VAN 1 – 0 NSH · VAN 49% → 99% +49

    The pick

    Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.

    Predators 55%

    Toss-upMiss
    VAN 45%NSH 55%

    Forecast Elo ratings alone

    How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

    Market
    No line yet
    Pre-line forecast
    NSH 55%
    Elo + market-implied
    Elo ratings
    NSH 54%
    Fair odds
    NSH -121
    VAN +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
    Pregame projection
    VAN 2.9 – 3.2 NSH
    Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

    How the number is built

    Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

    FactorVANNSHWhy
    Team rating15391532Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
    Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
    Starting goalies+4+3VAN: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts)
    Elo ratingsNSH +27 EloNSH 53.8%
    Market-implied ratingsNSH 55.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
    Pre-line forecastNSH 54.8%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)

    Tale of the tape

    This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

    Try another venue →
    Vancouver Canucks and Nashville Predators compared, with each team's league rank
    VANStatNSH
    7th of 313.4Goals scored3.212th of 31
    6th of 312.7Goals allowed2.910th of 31
    5th of 31+0.7Margin+0.312th of 31
    19th of 3149.6%Shot share51.1%13th of 31
    9th of 3190.9%Save percentage91.1%7th of 31
    12th of 315–5Last 105–512th of 31
    9th of 3122–18Road vs home22–1714th of 31

    Rating history

    Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

    CanucksPredators
    13501400145015001550league averageNovFebMayAugNov

    Recent form

    Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

    Head to head

    VAN 6–2 NSH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.