Nashville Predators at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Roman JosiGoals1
- Filip ForsbergAssists2
- Filip ForsbergPoints2
Canucks- Nikita ZadorovGoals1
- Quinn HughesAssists1
- Nikita ZadorovPoints1
Scoring summary
- P312:46Alexandre Carrier Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (3), Filip Forsberg (4)2–1
- P37:15Roman Josi Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (3), Tyson Barrie (1)1–1
- P33:11Nikita Zadorov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (5)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P33:11Nikita Zadorov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (5)NSH 0 – 1 VAN · VAN 53% → 78% +25VAN 53% → 78%+25 pts
- P37:15Roman Josi Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Forsberg (3), Tyson Barrie (1)NSH 1 – 1 VAN · NSH 20% → 48% +28NSH 20% → 48%+28 pts
- P312:46Alexandre Carrier Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (3), Filip Forsberg (4)NSH 2 – 1 VAN · NSH 48% → 84% +36NSH 48% → 84%+36 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canucks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 57%
- Fair odds
- VAN -124
- NSH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.9 – 3.2 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | 0 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · VAN: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +47 Elo | VAN 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 55.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.47th of 31 |
| 10th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 31 |
| 12th of 31+0.3 | Margin | +0.75th of 31 |
| 13th of 3151.1% | Shot share | 49.6%19th of 31 |
| 7th of 3191.1% | Save percentage | 90.9%9th of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3124–15 | Road vs home | 26–135th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NSH 1–6 VAN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.