Vancouver Canucks at Nashville Predators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- J.T. MillerGoals1
- Quinn HughesAssists2
- J.T. MillerPoints2
Predators- Luke EvangelistaGoals1
- Jason ZuckerAssists1
- Luke EvangelistaPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:48Luke Evangelista Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (2), Alexandre Carrier (1)2–1
- P24:33Brock Boeser Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: J.T. Miller (2), Quinn Hughes (4)2–0
- P113:23J.T. Miller Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (3), Elias Pettersson (1)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:23J.T. Miller Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Quinn Hughes (3), Elias Pettersson (1)VAN 1 – 0 NSH · VAN 45% → 62% +16VAN 45% → 62%+16 pts
- P24:33Brock Boeser Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: J.T. Miller (2), Quinn Hughes (4)VAN 2 – 0 NSH · VAN 64% → 80% +16VAN 64% → 80%+16 pts
- P316:48Luke Evangelista Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (2), Alexandre Carrier (1)VAN 2 – 1 NSH · NSH <1% → 6% +6NSH <1% → 6%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Predators 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NSH 57%
- Fair odds
- NSH -124
- VAN +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.9 – 3.2 NSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | NSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | +2 | VAN: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +46 Elo | NSH 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NSH 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.212th of 31 |
| 6th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 31 |
| 5th of 31+0.7 | Margin | +0.312th of 31 |
| 19th of 3149.6% | Shot share | 51.1%13th of 31 |
| 9th of 3190.9% | Save percentage | 91.1%7th of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 9th of 3122–18 | Road vs home | 22–1714th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VAN 4–1 NSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.