Nashville Predators at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Filip ForsbergGoals1
- Ryan McDonaghAssists2
- Ryan McDonaghPoints2
Penguins- Erik KarlssonGoals1
- Marcus PetterssonAssists2
- Sidney CrosbyPoints2
Scoring summary
- P32:42Emil Bemstrom Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (44), Marcus Pettersson (26)2–4
- P217:36Filip Forsberg Goal (48) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McDonagh (29)2–3
- P28:21Reilly Smith Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Lars Eller (16), Kris Letang (41)1–3
- P27:24Gustav Nyquist Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (43), Ryan McDonagh (28)1–2
- P113:50Erik Karlsson Goal (11) Slap Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (50), Marcus Pettersson (25)0–2
- P17:02Sidney Crosby Goal (42) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (34), Bryan Rust (28)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:02Sidney Crosby Goal (42) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (34), Bryan Rust (28)NSH 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 53% → 68% +15PIT 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P27:24Gustav Nyquist Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan O'Reilly (43), Ryan McDonagh (28)NSH 1 – 2 PIT · NSH 15% → 29% +14NSH 15% → 29%+14 pts
- P28:21Reilly Smith Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Lars Eller (16), Kris Letang (41)NSH 1 – 3 PIT · PIT 72% → 86% +14PIT 72% → 86%+14 pts
- P217:36Filip Forsberg Goal (48) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McDonagh (29)NSH 2 – 3 PIT · NSH 11% → 26% +15NSH 11% → 26%+15 pts
- P32:42Emil Bemstrom Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (44), Marcus Pettersson (26)NSH 2 – 4 PIT · PIT 77% → 92% +15PIT 77% → 92%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Penguins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 48%
- Fair odds
- PIT -116
- NSH +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 3.0 – 3.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −7 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NSH +13 Elo | NSH 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.116th of 31 |
| 9th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.015th of 31 |
| 12th of 31+0.4 | Margin | +0.116th of 31 |
| 11th of 3151.2% | Shot share | 51.6%10th of 31 |
| 7th of 3191.1% | Save percentage | 90.4%14th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 31 |
| 1st of 3124–14 | Road vs home | 21–1815th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NSH 1–0 PIT in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.