Nashville Predators at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Predators- Filip ForsbergGoals1
- Filip ForsbergAssists1
- Filip ForsbergPoints2
Canucks- Nikita ZadorovGoals1
- Phillip Di GiuseppeAssists1
- Nikita ZadorovPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:07Kiefer Sherwood Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–1
- P215:33Nikita Zadorov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ian Cole (1), Phillip Di Giuseppe (1)3–1
- P28:04Colton Sissons Goal (1) Poke, assists: Anthony Beauvillier (1), Jason Zucker (1)3–0
- P26:29Filip Forsberg Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (2)2–0
- P11:14Anthony Beauvillier Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Filip Forsberg (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:14Anthony Beauvillier Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Filip Forsberg (2)NSH 1 – 0 VAN · NSH 45% → 60% +15NSH 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P26:29Filip Forsberg Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Gustav Nyquist (2)NSH 2 – 0 VAN · NSH 65% → 81% +16NSH 65% → 81%+16 pts
- P28:04Colton Sissons Goal (1) Poke, assists: Anthony Beauvillier (1), Jason Zucker (1)NSH 3 – 0 VAN · NSH 82% → 92% +10NSH 82% → 92%+10 pts
- P215:33Nikita Zadorov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ian Cole (1), Phillip Di Giuseppe (1)NSH 3 – 1 VAN · VAN 5% → 14% +9VAN 5% → 14%+9 pts
- P318:07Kiefer Sherwood Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneNSH 4 – 1 VAN · NSH >99% → >99% +0NSH >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canucks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 55%
- Fair odds
- VAN -123
- NSH +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NSH 2.9 – 3.2 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NSH | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −11 | NSH: Juuse Saros: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · VAN: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.27 more goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +36 Elo | VAN 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NSH | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.47th of 31 |
| 10th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 31 |
| 12th of 31+0.3 | Margin | +0.75th of 31 |
| 13th of 3151.1% | Shot share | 49.6%19th of 31 |
| 7th of 3191.1% | Save percentage | 90.9%9th of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3124–15 | Road vs home | 26–135th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NSH 0–4 VAN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.