Edmonton Oilers at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each period. Above the line favors LA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Evan BouchardGoals1
- Leon DraisaitlAssists1
- Evan BouchardPoints1
KingsScoring summary
- P211:49Evan Bouchard Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (5), Connor McDavid (9)1–0
Turning points
The play that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P211:49Evan Bouchard Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (5), Connor McDavid (9)EDM 1 – 0 LA · EDM 47% → 68% +21EDM 47% → 68%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 50%
- Fair odds
- LA -117
- EDM +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.0 – 3.2 LA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +7 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts) · LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +2 Elo | EDM 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 54.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.119th of 31 |
| 8th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 2.63rd of 31 |
| 2nd of 31+0.7 | Margin | +0.411th of 31 |
| 4th of 3154.5% | Shot share | 53.3%5th of 31 |
| 12th of 3190.5% | Save percentage | 91.2%6th of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 11th of 3120–19 | Road vs home | 21–1917th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
EDM 5–2 LA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.