Chicago Blackhawks at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blackhawks- Ryan DonatoGoals1
- Ryan DonatoAssists1
- Ryan DonatoPoints2
Kings- Viktor ArvidssonGoals2
- Phillip DanaultAssists3
- Viktor ArvidssonPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT0:06Adrian Kempe Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: none4–5
- P318:39Viktor Arvidsson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (35), Adrian Kempe (47)4–4
- P36:28Ryan Donato Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: MacKenzie Entwistle (6)4–3
- P33:42Joey Anderson Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Landon Slaggert (3)3–3
- P31:28Tyler Johnson Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Kevin Korchinski (10), Ryan Donato (18)2–3
- P217:24Trevor Moore Goal (31) Wrist Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (9), Phillip Danault (30)1–3
- P216:04Quinton Byfield Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Phillip Danault (29), Jordan Spence (22)1–2
- P24:37Viktor Arvidsson Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (28), Trevor Moore (26)1–1
- P115:39Lukas Reichel Goal (5) Backhand, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P216:04Quinton Byfield Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Phillip Danault (29), Jordan Spence (22)CHI 1 – 2 LA · LA 56% → 76% +21LA 56% → 76%+21 pts
- P33:42Joey Anderson Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Landon Slaggert (3)CHI 3 – 3 LA · CHI 21% → 45% +25CHI 21% → 45%+25 pts
- P36:28Ryan Donato Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: MacKenzie Entwistle (6)CHI 4 – 3 LA · CHI 46% → 75% +29CHI 46% → 75%+29 pts
- P318:39Viktor Arvidsson Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (35), Adrian Kempe (47)CHI 4 – 4 LA · LA <1% → 51% +51LA <1% → 51%+51 pts
- OT0:06Adrian Kempe Goal (28) Snap Shot, assists: noneCHI 4 – 5 LA · LA 53% → 91% +38LA 53% → 91%+38 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 73%
- Fair odds
- LA -143
- CHI +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 2.8 – 3.3 LA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1394 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −17 | 0 | CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.44 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +173 Elo | LA 73.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 58.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CHI | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 312.1 | Goals scored | 3.019th of 31 |
| 27th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 2.63rd of 31 |
| 30th of 31−1.4 | Margin | +0.411th of 31 |
| 30th of 3144.5% | Shot share | 53.1%5th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3189.9% | Save percentage | 91.3%5th of 31 |
| 26th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 31 |
| 31st of 316–32 | Road vs home | 20–1918th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 0–2 LA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.