Los Angeles Kings at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Adrian KempeGoals1
- Adrian KempeAssists1
- Adrian KempePoints2
Oilers- Zach HymanGoals3
- Connor McDavidAssists5
- Connor McDavidPoints5
Scoring summary
- P319:34Warren Foegele Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–7
- P318:49Trevor Moore Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (1)4–6
- P316:56Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (1), Vladislav Gavrikov (1)3–6
- P36:17Zach Hyman Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Connor McDavid (5), Evan Bouchard (4)2–6
- P31:08Leon Draisaitl Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (4), Evan Bouchard (3)2–5
- P217:56Adrian Kempe Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (1)2–4
- P210:56Mikey Anderson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Drew Doughty (1), Viktor Arvidsson (1)1–4
- P28:24Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Leon Draisaitl (1), Connor McDavid (3)0–4
- P24:50Zach Hyman Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (2), Adam Henrique (1)0–3
- P19:36Adam Henrique Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (1), Evan Bouchard (2)0–2
- P16:52Zach Hyman Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (1), Evan Bouchard (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:52Zach Hyman Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (1), Evan Bouchard (1)LA 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 56% → 70% +15EDM 56% → 70%+15 pts
- P19:36Adam Henrique Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (1), Evan Bouchard (2)LA 0 – 2 EDM · EDM 70% → 82% +12EDM 70% → 82%+12 pts
- P24:50Zach Hyman Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (2), Adam Henrique (1)LA 0 – 3 EDM · EDM 86% → 94% +8EDM 86% → 94%+8 pts
- P217:56Adrian Kempe Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (1)LA 2 – 4 EDM · LA 3% → 10% +7LA 3% → 10%+7 pts
- P31:08Leon Draisaitl Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (4), Evan Bouchard (3)LA 2 – 5 EDM · EDM 92% → 98% +6EDM 92% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Oilers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 60%
- Fair odds
- EDM -127
- LA +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 2.9 – 3.3 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −1 | LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈34 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +68 Elo | EDM 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 56.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.64th of 31 |
| 3rd of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 2.98th of 31 |
| 11th of 31+0.4 | Margin | +0.72nd of 31 |
| 5th of 3153.3% | Shot share | 54.5%4th of 31 |
| 6th of 3191.2% | Save percentage | 90.5%12th of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 11th of 3120–19 | Road vs home | 27–123rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LA 1–3 EDM in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.