Skip to content
ShadowCryptsPredictions
Live
NHL games
Updated

Los Angeles Kings at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast

FinalEDM wins series 4-1

Away

Kings

44-27-11

3–4

at

Home

Oilers

49-27-6

LA 44%EDM 56%

You didn't pick this one.

Rogers Place · ESPN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.

EDM favored LA favored7 scoring plays
P1P2P3EDM50%LA

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Kings
Oilers

Scoring summary

  • P317:42Adrian Kempe Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Matt Roy (2), Kevin Fiala (1)3–4
  • P219:07Zach Hyman Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (5), Evan Bouchard (8)2–4
  • P212:21Leon Draisaitl Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (11), Evan Bouchard (7)2–3
  • P27:44Leon Draisaitl Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (10), Evan Bouchard (6)2–2
  • P23:08Blake Lizotte Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (3), Andreas Englund (1)2–1
  • P119:32Alex Laferriere Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladislav Gavrikov (2), Matt Roy (1)1–1
  • P110:17Evander Kane Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Brett Kulak (1), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (4)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P110:17Evander Kane Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Brett Kulak (1), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (4)LA 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 56% → 71% +15
  2. P119:32Alex Laferriere Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Vladislav Gavrikov (2), Matt Roy (1)LA 1 – 1 EDM · LA 28% → 45% +17
  3. P23:08Blake Lizotte Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Viktor Arvidsson (3), Andreas Englund (1)LA 2 – 1 EDM · LA 45% → 63% +18
  4. P27:44Leon Draisaitl Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (10), Evan Bouchard (6)LA 2 – 2 EDM · EDM 35% → 55% +19
  5. P212:21Leon Draisaitl Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (11), Evan Bouchard (7)LA 2 – 3 EDM · EDM 54% → 74% +20

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.

Oilers 56%

LeanHit
LA 44%EDM 56%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
EDM 56%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
EDM 61%
Fair odds
EDM -128
LA +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
LA 2.9 – 3.3 EDM
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorLAEDMWhy
Team rating15071557Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+8+1LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈35 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsEDM +77 EloEDM 61.0%
Market-implied ratingsEDM 55.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastEDM 56.2%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Los Angeles Kings and Edmonton Oilers compared, with each team's league rank
LAStatEDM
19th of 313.1Goals scored3.64th of 31
3rd of 312.6Goals allowed2.98th of 31
11th of 31+0.4Margin+0.72nd of 31
5th of 3153.3%Shot share54.5%4th of 31
6th of 3191.2%Save percentage90.5%12th of 31
6th of 316–4Last 106–46th of 31
11th of 3120–19Road vs home27–123rd of 31

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

KingsOilers
1450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Head to head

LA 2–6 EDM in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.