Vancouver Canucks at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Dakota JoshuaGoals1
- Elias LindholmAssists1
- Conor GarlandPoints1
Oilers- Evan BouchardGoals1
- Evan BouchardAssists1
- Leon DraisaitlPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:21Evan Bouchard Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (12), Evander Kane (3)2–3
- P318:19Dakota Joshua Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Brock Boeser (5), Quinn Hughes (9)2–2
- P36:54Conor Garland Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (3), Nikita Zadorov (4)1–2
- P219:20Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (3)0–2
- P111:10Leon Draisaitl Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (16), Evan Bouchard (11)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:10Leon Draisaitl Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (16), Evan Bouchard (11)VAN 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 55% → 70% +15EDM 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P219:20Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (3)VAN 0 – 2 EDM · EDM 76% → 91% +15EDM 76% → 91%+15 pts
- P36:54Conor Garland Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (3), Nikita Zadorov (4)VAN 1 – 2 EDM · VAN 5% → 20% +15VAN 5% → 20%+15 pts
- P318:19Dakota Joshua Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Brock Boeser (5), Quinn Hughes (9)VAN 2 – 2 EDM · VAN 1% → 49% +48VAN 1% → 49%+48 pts
- P319:21Evan Bouchard Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (12), Evander Kane (3)VAN 2 – 3 EDM · EDM 51% → >99% +49EDM 51% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Oilers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 57%
- Fair odds
- EDM -124
- VAN +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.9 – 3.2 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | 0 | VAN: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +46 Elo | EDM 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.64th of 31 |
| 6th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 2.98th of 31 |
| 5th of 31+0.7 | Margin | +0.72nd of 31 |
| 19th of 3149.6% | Shot share | 54.5%4th of 31 |
| 9th of 3190.9% | Save percentage | 90.5%12th of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 9th of 3122–18 | Road vs home | 27–123rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VAN 6–1 EDM in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.