Edmonton Oilers at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals1
- Leon DraisaitlAssists3
- Leon DraisaitlPoints4
Canucks- Nikita ZadorovGoals1
- J.T. MillerAssists2
- Nikita ZadorovPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT5:38Evan Bouchard Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (10), Connor McDavid (15)4–3
- P35:27Connor McDavid Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (2), Leon Draisaitl (9)3–3
- P218:17Nikita Zadorov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (7)2–3
- P21:16Mattias Ekholm Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (14), Leon Draisaitl (8)2–2
- P20:53Brock Boeser Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Carson Soucy (4), Nikita Zadorov (3)1–2
- P110:56Leon Draisaitl Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (13), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (8)1–1
- P14:14Elias Pettersson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (6), Quinn Hughes (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:53Brock Boeser Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Carson Soucy (4), Nikita Zadorov (3)EDM 1 – 2 VAN · VAN 54% → 71% +17VAN 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P21:16Mattias Ekholm Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (14), Leon Draisaitl (8)EDM 2 – 2 VAN · EDM 29% → 46% +17EDM 29% → 46%+17 pts
- P218:17Nikita Zadorov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (7)EDM 2 – 3 VAN · VAN 53% → 75% +22VAN 53% → 75%+22 pts
- P35:27Connor McDavid Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (2), Leon Draisaitl (9)EDM 3 – 3 VAN · EDM 21% → 48% +26EDM 21% → 48%+26 pts
- OT5:38Evan Bouchard Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (10), Connor McDavid (15)EDM 4 – 3 VAN · EDM 49% → 100% +51EDM 49% → 100%+51 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canucks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VAN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VAN 55%
- Fair odds
- VAN -122
- EDM +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 2.9 – 3.2 VAN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | VAN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +8 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · VAN: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +32 Elo | VAN 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VAN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VAN 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.47th of 31 |
| 8th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 2.76th of 31 |
| 2nd of 31+0.7 | Margin | +0.75th of 31 |
| 4th of 3154.5% | Shot share | 49.6%19th of 31 |
| 12th of 3190.5% | Save percentage | 90.9%9th of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 11th of 3120–19 | Road vs home | 26–135th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
EDM 0–5 VAN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.