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Edmonton Oilers at Vancouver Canucks, NHL forecast

FinalVAN leads series 3-2

Away

Oilers

49-27-6

2–3

at

Home

Canucks

50-23-9

EDM 45%VAN 55%

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Rogers Arena · TNT, truTV, HBO Max

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VAN; hover for each play.

VAN favored EDM favored5 scoring plays
P1P2P3VAN50%EDM

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Oilers

Scoring summary

  • P319:27J.T. Miller Goal (3) Batted, assists: Elias Lindholm (4), Elias Pettersson (4)2–3
  • P25:14Phillip Di Giuseppe Goal (1) Backhand, assists: none2–2
  • P117:50Mattias Janmark Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Brown (1), Brett Kulak (2)2–1
  • P117:27Carson Soucy Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
  • P14:34Evander Kane Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (13), Vincent Desharnais (1)1–0

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P14:34Evander Kane Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (13), Vincent Desharnais (1)EDM 1 – 0 VAN · EDM 46% → 61% +15
  2. P117:27Carson Soucy Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneEDM 1 – 1 VAN · VAN 37% → 54% +17
  3. P117:50Mattias Janmark Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Brown (1), Brett Kulak (2)EDM 2 – 1 VAN · EDM 46% → 63% +17
  4. P25:14Phillip Di Giuseppe Goal (1) Backhand, assists: noneEDM 2 – 2 VAN · VAN 35% → 53% +19
  5. P319:27J.T. Miller Goal (3) Batted, assists: Elias Lindholm (4), Elias Pettersson (4)EDM 2 – 3 VAN · VAN 50% → >99% +50

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.

Canucks 55%

Toss-upHit
EDM 45%VAN 55%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
VAN 55%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
VAN 53%
Fair odds
VAN -120
EDM +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
EDM 2.9 – 3.2 VAN
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorEDMVANWhy
Team rating15581542Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+2+1EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) · VAN: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsVAN +18 EloVAN 52.6%
Market-implied ratingsVAN 55.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastVAN 54.5%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Edmonton Oilers and Vancouver Canucks compared, with each team's league rank
EDMStatVAN
4th of 313.6Goals scored3.47th of 31
8th of 312.9Goals allowed2.76th of 31
2nd of 31+0.7Margin+0.75th of 31
4th of 3154.5%Shot share49.6%19th of 31
12th of 3190.5%Save percentage90.9%9th of 31
6th of 316–4Last 105–512th of 31
11th of 3120–19Road vs home26–135th of 31

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

OilersCanucks
135014001450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Head to head

EDM 2–6 VAN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.