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Vancouver Canucks at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast

FinalSeries tied 3-3

Away

Canucks

50-23-9

1–5

at

Home

Oilers

49-27-6

VAN 45%EDM 55%

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Rogers Place · ESPN

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.

EDM favored VAN favored6 scoring plays
P1P2P3EDM50%VAN

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Scoring summary

  • P313:04Evander Kane Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (15)1–5
  • P33:25Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (3) Poke, assists: Connor McDavid (19), Evan Bouchard (13)1–4
  • P211:20Evan Bouchard Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (18), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (11)1–3
  • P27:14Zach Hyman Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (17), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (10)1–2
  • P110:03Nils Hoglander Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (5), Filip Hronek (1)1–1
  • P18:18Dylan Holloway Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (14), Evan Bouchard (12)0–1

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. P18:18Dylan Holloway Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (14), Evan Bouchard (12)VAN 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 55% → 70% +15
  2. P110:03Nils Hoglander Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (5), Filip Hronek (1)VAN 1 – 1 EDM · VAN 30% → 45% +15
  3. P27:14Zach Hyman Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (17), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (10)VAN 1 – 2 EDM · EDM 54% → 72% +18
  4. P211:20Evan Bouchard Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (18), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (11)VAN 1 – 3 EDM · EDM 73% → 87% +14
  5. P33:25Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (3) Poke, assists: Connor McDavid (19), Evan Bouchard (13)VAN 1 – 4 EDM · EDM 93% → 98% +6

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.

Oilers 55%

LeanHit
VAN 45%EDM 55%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.

Market
No line yet
Pre-line forecast
EDM 55%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
EDM 56%
Fair odds
EDM -123
VAN +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
VAN 2.9 – 3.2 EDM
Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorVANEDMWhy
Team rating15441556Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+35Worth 35 Elo in the NHL
Starting goalies+3−3VAN: Arturs Silovs: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsEDM +41 EloEDM 55.8%
Market-implied ratingsEDM 55.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastEDM 55.2%20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend)

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.

Try another venue →
Vancouver Canucks and Edmonton Oilers compared, with each team's league rank
VANStatEDM
7th of 313.4Goals scored3.64th of 31
6th of 312.7Goals allowed2.98th of 31
5th of 31+0.7Margin+0.72nd of 31
19th of 3149.6%Shot share54.5%4th of 31
9th of 3190.9%Save percentage90.5%12th of 31
12th of 315–5Last 106–46th of 31
9th of 3122–18Road vs home27–123rd of 31

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

CanucksOilers
135014001450150015501600league averageNovFebMayAugNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Head to head

VAN 7–2 EDM in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.