Dallas Stars at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Esa LindellGoals1
- Jamie BennAssists2
- Jamie BennPoints2
Oilers- Mattias EkholmGoals1
- Connor McDavidAssists3
- Connor McDavidPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:07Mattias Ekholm Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (24)2–5
- P215:22Leon Draisaitl Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (4), Connor McDavid (23)2–4
- P214:31Mattias Janmark Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Brown (3)2–3
- P116:17Evan Bouchard Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (22), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (14)2–2
- P113:30Ryan McLeod Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Corey Perry (1), Darnell Nurse (3)2–1
- P15:29Esa Lindell Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Miro Heiskanen (10), Jamie Benn (11)2–0
- P10:58Wyatt Johnston Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (10), Thomas Harley (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:58Wyatt Johnston Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (10), Thomas Harley (3)DAL 1 – 0 EDM · DAL 46% → 60% +15DAL 46% → 60%+15 pts
- P113:30Ryan McLeod Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Corey Perry (1), Darnell Nurse (3)DAL 2 – 1 EDM · EDM 23% → 38% +14EDM 23% → 38%+14 pts
- P116:17Evan Bouchard Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (22), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (14)DAL 2 – 2 EDM · EDM 37% → 54% +17EDM 37% → 54%+17 pts
- P214:31Mattias Janmark Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Brown (3)DAL 2 – 3 EDM · EDM 53% → 74% +21EDM 53% → 74%+21 pts
- P215:22Leon Draisaitl Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (4), Connor McDavid (23)DAL 2 – 4 EDM · EDM 74% → 89% +15EDM 74% → 89%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Oilers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 53%
- Fair odds
- EDM -120
- DAL +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.9 – 3.2 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1569 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −2 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈38 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +18 Elo | EDM 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 54.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.64th of 31 |
| 9th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 2.98th of 31 |
| 2nd of 31+0.7 | Margin | +0.72nd of 31 |
| 8th of 3152.3% | Shot share | 54.5%4th of 31 |
| 15th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 90.5%12th of 31 |
| 1st of 318–2 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 1st of 3125–15 | Road vs home | 27–123rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 4–2 EDM in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.