Florida Panthers at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Anton LundellGoals1
- Anton LundellAssists1
- Anton LundellPoints2
Bruins- Pavel ZachaGoals1
- Jake DeBruskAssists1
- Pavel ZachaPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:27Gustav Forsling Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (7), Matthew Tkachuk (10)2–1
- P212:44Anton Lundell Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (5)1–1
- P119:07Pavel Zacha Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Jake DeBrusk (6), Parker Wotherspoon (2)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:07Pavel Zacha Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Jake DeBrusk (6), Parker Wotherspoon (2)FLA 0 – 1 BOS · BOS 53% → 70% +17BOS 53% → 70%+17 pts
- P212:44Anton Lundell Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (5)FLA 1 – 1 BOS · FLA 27% → 47% +20FLA 27% → 47%+20 pts
- P318:27Gustav Forsling Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Anton Lundell (7), Matthew Tkachuk (10)FLA 2 – 1 BOS · FLA 49% → 99% +49FLA 49% → 99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bruins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 50%
- Fair odds
- BOS -118
- FLA +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.9 – 3.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1570 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | 0 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈37 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈33 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +2 Elo | BOS 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.213th of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 2.75th of 31 |
| 1st of 31+0.8 | Margin | +0.59th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3154.7% | Shot share | 49.0%22nd of 31 |
| 2nd of 3191.7% | Save percentage | 91.6%3rd of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 1st of 3125–15 | Road vs home | 23–1713th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
FLA 3–6 BOS in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.
- May 14BOS 2 @ FLA 1PlayoffsPicked FLA 56%Miss
- May 12FLA 3 @ BOS 2PlayoffsPicked BOS 54%Miss
- May 10FLA 6 @ BOS 2PlayoffsPicked BOS 54%Miss
- May 8BOS 1 @ FLA 6PlayoffsPicked FLA 55%Hit
- May 6BOS 5 @ FLA 1PlayoffsPicked FLA 56%Miss
- Apr 6FLA 2 @ BOS 3Picked BOS 55%Hit
- Mar 26BOS 4 @ FLA 3Picked FLA 56%Miss
- Nov 22BOS 3 @ FLA 1Picked FLA 55%Miss