Florida Panthers at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Evan RodriguesGoals2
- Matthew TkachukAssists3
- Matthew TkachukPoints3
Bruins- Jake DeBruskGoals1
- Jake DeBruskAssists1
- Jake DeBruskPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:09Evan Rodrigues Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (3), Eetu Luostarinen (3)6–2
- P318:36Sam Reinhart Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (9), Brandon Montour (5)5–2
- P38:31Jake DeBrusk Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Lohrei (3), David Pastrnak (4)4–2
- P35:01Jakub Lauko Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake DeBrusk (3), John Beecher (1)4–1
- P33:09Brandon Montour Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (8), Aleksander Barkov (8)4–0
- P217:14Carter Verhaeghe Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (7), Aleksander Barkov (7)3–0
- P216:14Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (2), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (2)2–0
- P18:04Evan Rodrigues Goal (2) Batted, assists: Gustav Forsling (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:04Evan Rodrigues Goal (2) Batted, assists: Gustav Forsling (5)FLA 1 – 0 BOS · FLA 46% → 61% +15FLA 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P216:14Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Bennett (2), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (2)FLA 2 – 0 BOS · FLA 69% → 86% +17FLA 69% → 86%+17 pts
- P217:14Carter Verhaeghe Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (7), Aleksander Barkov (7)FLA 3 – 0 BOS · FLA 87% → 96% +9FLA 87% → 96%+9 pts
- P33:09Brandon Montour Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (8), Aleksander Barkov (8)FLA 4 – 0 BOS · FLA 98% → >99% +2FLA 98% → >99%+2 pts
- P38:31Jake DeBrusk Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason Lohrei (3), David Pastrnak (4)FLA 4 – 2 BOS · BOS <1% → 5% +5BOS <1% → 5%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bruins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 52%
- Fair odds
- BOS -120
- FLA +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.9 – 3.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | +2 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.06 more goals than with its usual starter (≈36 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +15 Elo | BOS 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 54.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.213th of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 2.75th of 31 |
| 1st of 31+0.8 | Margin | +0.59th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3154.7% | Shot share | 49.0%22nd of 31 |
| 2nd of 3191.7% | Save percentage | 91.6%3rd of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 1st of 3125–15 | Road vs home | 23–1713th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
FLA 1–5 BOS in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.