Edmonton Oilers at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Mattias JanmarkGoals1
- Cody CeciAssists1
- Mattias JanmarkPoints1
Panthers- Carter VerhaegheGoals1
- Carter VerhaegheAssists1
- Carter VerhaeghePoints2
Scoring summary
- P215:11Sam Reinhart Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (10), Dmitry Kulikov (2)1–2
- P16:44Mattias Janmark Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Cody Ceci (3)1–1
- P14:27Carter Verhaeghe Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Evan Rodrigues (8), Anton Lundell (14)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:27Carter Verhaeghe Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Evan Rodrigues (8), Anton Lundell (14)EDM 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 55% → 69% +14FLA 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P16:44Mattias Janmark Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Cody Ceci (3)EDM 1 – 1 FLA · EDM 31% → 45% +15EDM 31% → 45%+15 pts
- P215:11Sam Reinhart Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (10), Dmitry Kulikov (2)EDM 1 – 2 FLA · FLA 53% → 74% +21FLA 53% → 74%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Panthers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 54%
- Fair odds
- FLA -121
- EDM +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 2.9 – 3.1 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1574 | 1574 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +2 | −5 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈40 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +28 Elo | FLA 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 31 |
| 8th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 2.52nd of 31 |
| 2nd of 31+0.7 | Margin | +0.81st of 31 |
| 4th of 3154.5% | Shot share | 54.7%3rd of 31 |
| 12th of 3190.5% | Save percentage | 91.7%2nd of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 11th of 3120–19 | Road vs home | 25–158th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
EDM 3–5 FLA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
- Jun 21FLA 1 @ EDM 5PlayoffsPicked EDM 55%Hit
- Jun 18EDM 5 @ FLA 3PlayoffsPicked FLA 55%Miss
- Jun 15FLA 1 @ EDM 8PlayoffsPicked EDM 54%Hit
- Jun 13FLA 4 @ EDM 3PlayoffsPicked EDM 54%Miss
- Jun 10EDM 1 @ FLA 4PlayoffsPicked FLA 56%Hit
- Jun 8EDM 0 @ FLA 3PlayoffsPicked FLA 55%Hit
- Dec 16FLA 5 @ EDM 1Picked EDM 55%Miss
- Nov 20EDM 3 @ FLA 5Picked FLA 56%Hit