Edmonton Oilers at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Connor McDavidGoals2
- Evan BouchardAssists3
- Connor McDavidPoints4
Panthers- Evan RodriguesGoals1
- Evan RodriguesAssists1
- Evan RodriguesPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:41Connor McDavid Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–3
- P34:04Oliver Ekman-Larsson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (16)4–3
- P212:08Evan Rodrigues Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Brandon Montour (8), Sam Bennett (7)4–2
- P211:54Corey Perry Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (34), Evan Bouchard (26)4–1
- P26:53Matthew Tkachuk Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (7)3–1
- P25:00Connor McDavid Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (4), Evan Bouchard (25)3–0
- P21:58Zach Hyman Goal (15) Deflected, assists: Evan Bouchard (24), Connor McDavid (33)2–0
- P15:30Connor Brown Goal (2) Backhand, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:30Connor Brown Goal (2) Backhand, assists: noneEDM 1 – 0 FLA · EDM 45% → 60% +15EDM 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P21:58Zach Hyman Goal (15) Deflected, assists: Evan Bouchard (24), Connor McDavid (33)EDM 2 – 0 FLA · EDM 64% → 79% +15EDM 64% → 79%+15 pts
- P25:00Connor McDavid Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (4), Evan Bouchard (25)EDM 3 – 0 FLA · EDM 80% → 91% +11EDM 80% → 91%+11 pts
- P26:53Matthew Tkachuk Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Evan Rodrigues (7)EDM 3 – 1 FLA · FLA 9% → 19% +10FLA 9% → 19%+10 pts
- P34:04Oliver Ekman-Larsson Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (16)EDM 4 – 3 FLA · FLA 9% → 26% +17FLA 9% → 26%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Panthers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 57%
- Fair odds
- FLA -125
- EDM +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 2.8 – 3.2 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1583 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −1 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +51 Elo | FLA 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 31 |
| 8th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 2.52nd of 31 |
| 2nd of 31+0.7 | Margin | +0.81st of 31 |
| 4th of 3154.5% | Shot share | 54.7%3rd of 31 |
| 12th of 3190.5% | Save percentage | 91.7%2nd of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 11th of 3120–19 | Road vs home | 25–158th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
EDM 1–5 FLA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.