Florida Panthers at Edmonton Oilers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors EDM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Vladimir TarasenkoGoals1
- Anton LundellAssists1
- Vladimir TarasenkoPoints1
Oilers- Dylan HollowayGoals2
- Connor McDavidAssists3
- Connor McDavidPoints4
Scoring summary
- P316:41Ryan McLeod Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Holloway (2), Warren Foegele (3)1–8
- P314:11Dylan Holloway Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (32), Corey Perry (2)1–7
- P213:03Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Leon Draisaitl (20), Connor McDavid (31)1–6
- P24:59Darnell Nurse Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (30), Zach Hyman (6)1–5
- P21:13Connor McDavid Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (5), Evan Bouchard (23)1–4
- P114:48Dylan Holloway Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Leon Draisaitl (19), Brett Kulak (6)1–3
- P111:26Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Gustav Forsling (9), Anton Lundell (13)1–2
- P17:48Adam Henrique Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Mattias Janmark (3), Mattias Ekholm (4)0–2
- P13:11Mattias Janmark Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Connor Brown (4)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:11Mattias Janmark Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Connor Brown (4)FLA 0 – 1 EDM · EDM 54% → 68% +14EDM 54% → 68%+14 pts
- P17:48Adam Henrique Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Mattias Janmark (3), Mattias Ekholm (4)FLA 0 – 2 EDM · EDM 69% → 81% +12EDM 69% → 81%+12 pts
- P111:26Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Gustav Forsling (9), Anton Lundell (13)FLA 1 – 2 EDM · FLA 18% → 31% +13FLA 18% → 31%+13 pts
- P114:48Dylan Holloway Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Leon Draisaitl (19), Brett Kulak (6)FLA 1 – 3 EDM · EDM 69% → 82% +13EDM 69% → 82%+13 pts
- P21:13Connor McDavid Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (5), Evan Bouchard (23)FLA 1 – 4 EDM · EDM 84% → 93% +9EDM 84% → 93%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Oilers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- EDM 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- EDM 50%
- Fair odds
- EDM -117
- FLA +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 2.9 – 3.2 EDM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | EDM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1589 | 1559 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −1 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) · EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈39 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +1 Elo | FLA 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | EDM 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | EDM 54.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.64th of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 2.98th of 31 |
| 1st of 31+0.8 | Margin | +0.72nd of 31 |
| 3rd of 3154.7% | Shot share | 54.5%4th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3191.7% | Save percentage | 90.5%12th of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 1st of 3125–15 | Road vs home | 27–123rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
FLA 5–0 EDM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.