Los Angeles Kings at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Anze KopitarGoals3
- Joel EdmundsonAssists1
- Anze KopitarPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:18Anze Kopitar Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (1), Adrian Kempe (1)3–1
- P318:22Anze Kopitar Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Jordan Spence (1), Kevin Fiala (1)2–1
- P30:13Anze Kopitar Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (1), Joel Edmundson (1)1–1
- P216:55
Alex Tuch Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P216:55Alex Tuch Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: noneLA 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 51% → 73% +22BUF 51% → 73%+22 pts
- P30:13Anze Kopitar Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Laferriere (1), Joel Edmundson (1)LA 1 – 1 BUF · LA 26% → 49% +24LA 26% → 49%+24 pts
- P318:22Anze Kopitar Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Jordan Spence (1), Kevin Fiala (1)LA 2 – 1 BUF · LA 50% → 99% +49LA 50% → 99%+49 pts
- P319:18Anze Kopitar Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Quinton Byfield (1), Adrian Kempe (1)LA 3 – 1 BUF · LA >99% → >99% +0LA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Sabres 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- BUF 51%
- ML LA -105 / BUF -115
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.3 pts
- BUF: Elo 58.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BUF -104
- LA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.2 – 3.3 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −28 | +6 | LA: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.70 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈32 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +59 Elo | BUF 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 53.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023-24) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 31 |
| 3rd of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 31 |
| 11th of 31+0.4 | Margin | 0.017th of 31 |
| 5th of 3153.3% | Shot share | 51.2%12th of 31 |
| 6th of 3191.2% | Save percentage | 90.3%17th of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 11th of 3120–19 | Road vs home | 20–2020th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LA 0–2 BUF in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.